The Green Bay Packers are 5-3, currently in last place in the NFC North and have (roughly) a coin flip's chance of making the playoffs after eight games of the 2026 season.
According to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator, the Packers have a 47 percent chance of qualifying for the playoffs after beating the Carolina Panthers on Thursday night and the results of Sunday's games around the NFL. Monday night's showdown between the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks is important to the Packers, but it will only shift the team's playoff chances by a percent either way depending on the winner. The simulator actually thinks a Bears win would help the Packers, moving the playoff percentage to 48 while a Seahawks win would lower it to 46.
ESPN's FPI projections
see the Packers a similar way, giving them a 48.5 percent chance of making the playoffs as of Monday morning.
If the season ended today, the Packers would be the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. The Seahawks (4-3) are currently behind the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West and on the outside looking in on the wild card race, with the Detroit Lions, Bears and Packers holding the three spots behind the division-leading Minnesota Vikings.
The Packers' dream of winning the NFC North for the first time since 2021 is currently on life support. The Athletic's simulator gives the Packers a five percent chance of winning the division. Thinking big? The Packers have a two percent chance of being the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The most likely scenario for the Packers is missing the playoffs, which happens in 53 percent of simulations currently, with a wild card berth coming in as the second-most likely at 39 percent.
The Packers will need to win at least nine games to have a realistic chance at making the playoffs, so anything short of a 4-5 finish will likely take Matt LaFleur's team out of the running. Per The Athletic's simulator, the Packers have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs if they get to 10-7, which would require a 5-4 finish.
As it stands, the three teams ahead of the Packers in the NFC North all have a 70 percent chance or better at making the postseason. It'll be an uphill climb from here, but the Packers hold a playoff spot right now and have nine games to improve their positioning.
The next three weeks will be crucial. If the Packers win all three -- against the Patriots, Vikings and Bills -- their playoff chances rocket up to 90 percent. If they lose all three, the chances plummet to 14 percent.
Packers remaining schedule in 2026
- Week 9: at Patriots
- Week 10: vs. Vikings
- Week 11: Bye
- Week 12: at Rams
- Week 13: at Saints
- Week 14: vs. Bills
- Week 15: vs. Dolphins
- Week 16: at Bears
- Week 17: vs. Texans
- Week 18: vs. Lions
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Through 8 games, Packers have a coin flip's chance of making playoffs
