Rarely does Matt LaFleur go out of his way to amplify the importance of any one game, but even the Green Bay Packers coach had to admit: Sunday's visit from the Minnesota Vikings is a "very important game" for his team. The Packers have won five of six games but sit in last place in the rough-and-tough NFC North, and a third division loss -- after previously losing in Minnesota and Detroit -- could be catastrophic to Green Bay's division title hopes.
Want to host a playoff game at Lambeau Field in January? The Packers better go beat the visiting Vikings on Sunday.
Five things to watch and a prediction for Sunday's NFC North showdown in Green Bay:
1. Kirko Chains
The whole dynamic of the matchup shifted on Tuesday, when the Vikings -- who suffered through a miserable
quarterbacking performance from backup Carson Wentz on Monday night -- swung a trade for veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins at the deadline. Can Cousins, who is now 38 years old, return to Minnesota and save the Vikings, who have lost two straight games? Cousins threw 20 touchdown passes over nine games with the Las Vegas Raiders, and given his experience as an NFL quarterback (176 career starts) and with Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota, Cousins should be able to hit the ground running for a new (but familiar) team on Sunday. Per Next Gen Stats, Cousins is the only qualified quarterback who hasn't taken a sack against the blitz during the 2026 season. He should provide much-needed stability at the game's most important position for the Vikings, but switching teams midweek before facing a divisional rival on the road is a tall task for anyone.
2. Beating the blitz
Brian Flores is the NFL's most relentless blitzer, and his blitzes eventually forced Jordan Love and the Packers offense into crucial mistakes in Week 1, turning what looked like a Green Bay win into a three-score Minnesota victory. Can Love and the pass protection unit better handle the blitz on Sunday? It's the most important question of the matchup. Last week, Love completed 10 of 11 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown when blitzed by the Patriots, per PFF. He's playing some of the best football of his career over the last five weeks. Can Love remain in a "flow state" against Flores? Big plays are possible if Love can consistently navigate the chaos, but avoiding the game-changing mistakes is just as important as the big plays.
3. Which run game helps the QB?
Neither team is a dominant running team, but with Brian Flores calling plays for one defense and Jonathan Gannon the other, the run game should be a crucial piece of Sunday's matchup. The Packers are still last in rushing yards and second to last in yards per carry entering Week 10, but Kaleb Johnson showed signs of life as a runner last week, and the Lions and Bills proved that sticking with the run can help keep Flores' blitzes from taking over the game. The Vikings failed to rush for 100 yards in each of the last two weeks, both losses, while the Packers have allowed over 100 rushing yards just once in five weeks. The Vikings have also allowed over 170 rushing yards per game since the team's Week 6 bye. Expect Kevin O'Connell to lean on Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones in Kirk Cousins' first start on Sunday, but the Packers also need a (rare) steady performance from the run game. Keep in mind, Josh Jacobs (finger surgery) won't play.
4. The key: takeaways
The Week 1 showdown got away from the Packers when the turnovers piled up in the second half, so protecting the ball for 60 minutes will be a No. 1 priority. Jonathan Gannon's defense must also do their part. The Packers have multiple takeaways in six straight games, including five against the Bears and four against the Patriots, while Kirk Cousins threw eight interceptions and had three fumbles over nine games with the Raiders. Generating a few short fields via turnover could be necessary for the Packers to score enough points to win. Last week, the Packers scored 22 points off takeaways, including the game's first touchdown, and an interception from Xavier McKinney helped turn momentum in the second quarter. As is the case most weeks, the winner of the turnover battle will probably win the game on Sunday.
5. Watson-Golden encore
In a game featuring Justin Jefferson, the Packers are the team with the two wide receivers dominating the headlines. What do Christian Watson and Matthew Golden have in store for an encore after last week's explosion in New England? Watson leads the NFL in catches of at least 20 and 40 yards, and he'll add to his total on Sunday if the Packers can handle the blitz. Golden has been excellent against man coverage, providing quick outlets if Love wants to beat the blitz with quick throws. This might also be a matchup where screens and other quick game opportunities to create YAC are utilized, putting Tucker Kraft in the spotlight. The Packers need their stars in the passing game to guide the way.
Prediction: Packers 23, Vikings 17 (5-4)
I drastically underestimated the Packers in New England last week, but I won't make the same mistake here. Kirk Cousins should provide a shot in the arm for the Vikings' comatose offense, and he might be one of the few quarterbacks in the league who could switch teams midweek and go play that same Sunday, but Jonathan Gannon's defense is complex, aggressive and playing at a high level. I don't expect the Vikings to score a lot of points. But can the Packers score enough to win against the NFL's mad man defensive coordinator? The offensive line, tight ends and running backs are in for a huge challenge against Brian Flores. But having eight weeks of tape and improvements along the offensive line should give the Packers a better chance to survive in the rematch, and Jordan Love is playing at an incredibly high level against pressure and the blitz. He's the X factor, and he easily pushes this matchup Green Bay's way. Love makes a few plays that Cousins can't against the blitz, and the Packers get a late stand on defense to preserve a one-score win.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Vikings: 5 things to watch and a prediction for Week 10
