The Green Bay Packers defense will take on one of the league’s most talented young quarterbacks on Sunday afternoon, as Drake Maye faces the Packers for the first time in his career.
The Patriots offense has picked up in the last few weeks after a turbulent start to the season, and this looks like a heavyweight fight against Jonathan Gannon’s unit which has been one of the best defenses in the NFL so far this year.
Here are three thoughts on the matchup between New England’s offense and Green Bay’s defense:
Reality check for Drake Maye?
The Patriots defense has bullied weak offenses but found life very difficult against strong ones, and it is the same on the other side of the ball with Maye.
Despite a run to the Super Bowl, New England’s 2025 was heavily caveated by the fact
they played one of the easiest schedules in memory, and in the first half of 2026 they have done nothing to dispel those criticisms.
On the surface, it looks like the Patriots simply clicked into gear after a slow start, averaging 29.6 points over the last five games. However, the reality might be that the softening of their schedule is the reason for the uptick in production.
New England has faced four defenses ranked 18th or lower in expected points added (EPA) per play and has averaged 31 points against them. In four contests against defenses ranked eight or better, they have averaged only 15 points.
This is not to say Maye is a bad quarterback. He is a very good one, bordering on the top tier, and Sunday could well be a high-scoring back-and-forth battle between him and Jordan Love.
However, he does not have much help with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs out for this game and tight end Hunter Henry, who has been his go-to guy in recent weeks, questionable to play. TreVeyon Henderson is also out, removing some explosiveness from the run game.
Gannon’s group is currently fifth in EPA per play and has shown they can hang with high powered offenses, giving up only 13 points to the Cowboys and 20 to the Lions in recent weeks.
This matchup is a fascinating test for both sides, but it feels like it is more important for Maye and it would not be surprising if Green Bay overwhelms him given the lack of weapons around him and the excellent play of the Packers defense in the last month-plus.
All or nothing pass rush
After blitzing at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL through the first four games, Gannon has dialed it back in the last month, dropping from a 36.4% blitz rate to 28.4%, which is 19th in that four-week span.
The data suggests that to attack Maye, the Packers should either throw the kitchen sink, or not blitz at all. He ranks 11th in EPA per play against no blitz, fourth against five pass rushers and 18th against six or more.
If Gannon is going to come after Maye, he needs to send more than the offensive line can block, not just an extra player to make it five-on-five. Either get a free rusher at him or drop back and play coverage.
Find the football
Green Bay’s defensive backs will be crucial to defensive success on Sunday. Maye likes to attack downfield and is excellent at it, ranking first in the NFL in on-target rate on deep passes at 64.5%.
What that means though is that he will put the ball at risk, and that presents opportunities for the back end. Only Jalon Daniels, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold have a higher interception rate than Maye. The Patriots also lead the league in fumbles with 14.
Maye's picks are more often due to bad decisions than poor execution, and Gannon will no doubt try to confuse him with safety rotations and simulated pressures to coax a mistake out of him. That is where Evan Williams and Xavier McKinney could cash in.
But given Maye is more than willing to give his receivers a chance even if they are covered, Green Bay’s defensive backs need to show off their ball skills and awareness in this one.
The Packers only rank 28th in contested target rate on defense. It is no good being in tight coverage if you cannot get your head around and find the football, leading to the ball being caught anyway or giving up pass interference penalties.
Keisean Nixon is questionable to play with a groin injury but it sounds like he will try to play. He and Brandon Cisse cannot afford to have an off day with Maye on the other side.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 3 things on Packers defense vs. Patriots: Reality check for Drake Maye?
