The Green Bay Packers (1-2) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) are both headed into a must-win matchup on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The Packers have lost two of their first three games by three scores and have the team's worst point differential (-35) entering Week 4 since 1988. The Buccaneers are 0-3 for the first time since 2014, when the team finished 2-14.
Can the Packers get a big win over a winless Bucs team and begin the process of turning the season around? Or will a disappointing start to the 2026 season reach a new low?
Previewing Packers-Buccaneers in Week 4 with managing editor Zach Kruse and contributor Mark Oldacres:
What we're watching
Zach: The entirety of the Packers season rests on the rebuilt offensive line, so it'll be hard to look away from
the trenches, especially when the Packers have the football. Laken Tomlinson is likely to start at left guard, while Kevin Zeitler might get snaps at right guard. Can the Packers show signs of life up front? The Bucs are a heavy blitz team and an excellent run defense. This will be a terrific test. Regardless of the result, win or lose, the Packers offensive line must show progress.
Mark: Does Jalon Daniels have juice? It is hard to fully know what to expect from a backup quarterback, especially one who has almost zero experience in the NFL. Given the fact backup QBs around the league have had success early in the season and a general lack of confidence from Packers fans in the state of their team, there is understandably a fear that Daniels could embarrass them on Sunday. Whether that concern is well-placed will probably be apparent pretty early, as we find out whether the undrafted rookie has the quality to make this a game.
Biggest reason for optimism
Zach: The Packers are facing an undrafted rookie quarterback who will make his first pro start just four weeks into the regular season. Jalon Daniels flashed in the preseason and might be a good player, but it's hard to imagine a more favorable quarterback matchup at the NFL level. The Packers have to take advantage. Keep him in the pocket, throw a bunch of coverages at him early and, above all else, contain the run game on early downs and make the rookie operate in obvious passing situations. Jonathan Gannon's defense must rebound against an inexperienced and untested quarterback.
Mark: A more favorable pass protection matchup, at least if Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler are playing. The Buccaneers have struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks early in the season despite blitzing at a very high rate. If the Packers have the veteran presence of Tomlinson and Zeitler in the lineup, there should be more confidence in the offensive line’s ability to communicate and pick up stunts and blitzes. Green Bay absolutely has to take a step forward on the O-line this week.
Biggest reason for concern
Zach: Third down, and more specifically, the dangers of third-and-long. The Packers can't figure out how to run the ball, and solutions will be hard to find in a matchup against one of the NFL's elite run defenses. What happens when you can't run the ball? You get behind the sticks and are consistently in obvious passing situations, where the Packers have struggled all season. The nightmare scenario is the run game doesn't work again and Jordan Love is constantly under pressure while trying to figure out second-and-long and third-and-long against a blitz-happy defensive playcaller.
Mark: Green Bay’s lack of run game. This is arguably the worst possible matchup for a team struggling to run the ball, as Tampa Bay has ben excellent at stopping the run through three weeks. The O-line will need to perform considerably better than they have in any game this season to open holes for Kaleb Johnson — who seems to be rising up the running back pecking order — as well as MarShawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks. Even if they do, the running backs need to maximize the blocking they are provided to a much higher level than the last few games. This could be another day of Green Bay banging their heads against a wall in the run game.
Matchup to watch
Zach: Lukas Van Ness against Tristan Wirfs. The Packers' fourth-year edge rusher has taken a big leap, but he'll face a big test in Wirfs, a perennial All-Pro. Watch for any one-on-one matchups on passing downs. Don't be surprised if the Packers move LVN around in an attempt to get him favorable pass-rushing opportunities, especially from the interior. Wirfs is an elite player, but he allowed a couple of sacks and committed four penalties during the first three games.
Mark: The interior. Vita Vea and A’Shawn Robinson are two grown men on the defensive interior for the Buccaneers and will look to dominate the line of scrimmage. If Tomlinson and Zeitler play, it will be a big test for them on their Packers debut, as well as for Sean Rhyan to try to hold their own against a beefy defensive front.
Packers win if…
Zach: The offensive line shows signs of improvement and Jonathan Gannon's defense leads the way against a rookie quarterback. The path forward doesn't look complicated for the Packers on Sunday. Protect Jordan Love and force Jalon Daniels into a few mistakes. It doesn't have to look pretty, but if the Packers accomplish both of those goals and win, it'll represent a big step forward for Matt LaFleur's team.
Mark: They win on third down and in the red zone. The Packers have been terrible in those key areas on both sides of the ball this season, and the Buccaneers have been strong, particularly on defense. Green Bay must be able to mount longer drives on offense to give their defense a rest and punch the ball into the end zone when they get in range. On the other side, Jonathan Gannon’s unit must stiffen in the red zone more than they have early in the season and also get off the grass when given the chance.
Data dump
Zach: The Buccaneers defense was elite against the run in 2025, and the group has started 2026 ranked second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per attempt and sixth in EPA allowed per rush attempt, so this is going to be another tough test for the Packers run game. Green Bay previously played two other elite run defenses so far in 2026 -- Minnesota and Atlanta -- and those games didn't go well. The Packers need to better protect Jordan Love in the passing game, but reviving the NFL's worst run game could solve a lot of problems, especially in terms of staying ahead of the sticks and staying on the field as an offense. But it's just unlikely to happen this week.
Mark: Tackling could matter a lot in this game. Tampa ranks 28th in missed tackle rate in 2026 and 26th in yards after the catch per reception allowed. Tucker Kraft needs to bounce back after a disappointing game against the Falcons as Green Bay relies on him as their biggest YAC threat, especially with Jayden Reed out for the year. The Packers ranked 9th in missed tackle rate in the first two weeks but were 24th in Week 3 as Bijan Robinson ran rings around them. It’s a simple game sometimes, and the team that tackles better might end up winning this one.
Predictions
Zach: Facing a winless Buccaneers team with an undrafted rookie starting at quarterback should provide an excellent opportunity for the Packers to get back in the win column, but I'm in need-to-see-it-to-believe-it mode with the whole operation. At 1-2, and coming off a 21-point home loss, the Packers don't need to win pretty. Just get out of Tampa with a win. But seeing some signs of progress would be helpful. Can the offensive line keep Jordan Love from getting hit a dozen times? Will Love look more settled behind a new-look line? Can the run game show any signs of life? Given the states of the two offenses, the first to 14 might win on Sunday. I'm picking the Packers to get the job done, but they probably won't earn any style points. In reality, only two things need to happen: win and show real improvement along the offensive line. Anything else is icing on the cake. Packers 20, Buccaneers 13
Mark: At some point I should probably stop predicting the Packers to win until they show they deserve it, and often trips to Florida do not go too well for Green Bay. If Baker Mayfield was in the lineup it would be different, but the Packers have to be able to take advantage of playing a backup quarterback in Jalon Daniels on Sunday. No matter how bright he looked in preseason, or the problems of facing a relatively unknown QB who is mobile can bring, there are no excuses for the Packers not to bounce back this week, at least on defense. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s success will once again come down to who they have on the offensive line and how they play. If both Laken Tomlinson and Kevin Zeitler are on the field (the former seems more likely than the latter), my confidence level in a Packers victory will jump exponentially. They are likely to struggle to run the ball regardless against a stingy Buccaneers rush defense, but if they can just protect Jordan Love against a defense which blitzes at a very high rate but has not been getting home, it could make all the difference. Packers 23, Buccaneers 13
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Bucs preview and predictions: Can rebuilt OL rebound in TB?
