The Green Bay Packers defense has been the more impressive side of the ball in the first two weeks, which is an unusual development for Packers fans.
In Week 3 they will face an Atlanta Falcons offense which is yet to take a snap in the red zone this season but will finally have their preferred starting quarterback available in Michael Penix, who is coming off an injury and a disappointing 2025 season.
Here are three key things to watch as Jonathan Gannon’s defense looks to continue a strong start:
Will Jonathan Gannon challenge Michael Penix?
Penix’s splits between how he plays against man and zone coverage are about as wide as it gets. Among 48 qualified quarterbacks since 2024 he ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play versus zone compared to 47th against man.
Part of his success
against zone is a willingness to throw short, as he ranks 12th in EPA per play on throws of less than 10 yards, 42nd on intermediate throws and 40th on passes beyond 20 yards.
The types of routes Penix has been most successful throwing are flat routes, comebacks and hitches. None of those are necessarily designed to beat man coverage, nor do they lend themselves to explosive plays even if completed against man.
All of this indicates the Packers should challenge Penix and not give him easy completions.
Gannon does not traditionally play much man. His Green Bay defense is currently 27th in man rate, as was his Arizona unit between 2023 and 2025. So, is he willing to follow the blueprint and go against type? There is some evidence to suggest he will.
In the matchup between the Falcons and Gannon’s Cardinals last year, he used man coverage at a 30.6% clip, which was the second-highest rate of any of Arizona’s games from 2025, and way up from the average of 19.5% in their other 16 games that year.
Admittedly, it was Kirk Cousins under center rather than Penix, but the point stands and as we will get to, it is not just about the quarterback.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts
Utilizing more man coverage, as well as a heavier dose of single-high, could also help Green Bay slow down Atlanta’s top pass catcher in London.
It is difficult to find areas where he is truly weak, but London ranks 32nd in yards per route run (Y/RR) among 205 receivers since 2022 against man compared to 19th against zone, and 25th against single-high coverage compared to 9th versus two-high.
As brilliant as he is, London is not a burner and his style goes hand in hand with Penix, as he ranks 18th in Y/RR on short routes but only 35th on intermediate ones and 60th on deep routes. The three route types he ranks in the top ten for Y/RR are slants, comebacks and out routes.
Teams are dissuaded from challenging London because of his size, but the numbers imply the Packers should not sit back and allow him easy catches underneath, which he frequently takes for extra yards, but instead be brave enough to compete and ask London to make contested catches.
Gannon used one deep safety at a season-high 55.6% rate in his game against the Falcons last year compared to just 43% the rest of the season, and his Cardinals held London to three catches on eight targets for 27 yards. Three of those targets were contested and he caught zero.
The other benefit of single-high is that it closes and congests the middle of the field, which is where not only London but also tight end Pitts regularly operates.
They both line up around a third of the time in the slot, while over 40% of both London and Pitts’ targets in 2025 came in the middle of the field and within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage.
The flipside is that Pitts is arguably Atlanta’s best answer to single-high coverage with a unique ability to threaten the boundary for a tight end. He ranks 13th among 95 tight ends since 2022 in Y/RR versus single-high and seventh on corner routes, which target the areas vacated by that coverage.
Gannon will have to decide whether he thinks he has the defensive backs to pull off a more risky gameplan, especially as his primary corners – Brandon Cisse, Keisean Nixon and Javon Bullard in the slot – will be at a size disadvantage against London and Pitts.
Cisse ranks 32nd among 89 cornerbacks in yards per coverage snap allowed in man coverage so far this year, but he is not likely to travel with a receiver, so Nixon, who ranks 104th of 109 since the start of last season, could get picked on if caught in a bad matchup.
If Gannon does decide to challenge the Falcons in the secondary, he needs to pick his spots.
Bijan Robinson
Last but certainly not least, Green Bay will need to do their best to contain an elite running back in Robinson on Thursday night. To do so, they may actually want to rely more on nickel than base defense.
It is counterintuitive, as lighter bodies on the field should mean more favorable conditions to run the ball, but Robinson’s career EPA/rush and rushing success rate are better against base.
The Packers have also shown they can defend the run out of nickel early this season, ranking 15th in EPA per rush and 8th in rushing success rate allowed. In two matchups with Gannon, Robinson has an EPA per rush of -0.10 compared to his career average of -0.05.
They did a solid job against Breece Hall and the Jets last week, although Robinson is in another tier of rusher, and is also a dangerous weapon that must be accounted for in the passing game.
Highlight pass plays have been rare for Atlanta this season, but most of them involve getting the ball in Robinson’s hand in space near the line of scrimmage and letting him do the rest. He has been used in all different ways, even catching a pass on an in-breaker after being flexed out wide.
Once again, the recipe to limiting this threat could lie in man coverage, as Robinson is second in yards among 57 qualified running backs since entering the league in EPA per target versus zone but only 33rd against man.
Having someone assigned to Robinson could be useful, but who? Based on experience, Zaire Franklin would be the top candidate, as he ranked 28th in man coverage rate with the Colts in 2025, but the important question is whether he is actually good at it, and that is debatable.
Robinson is going to produce to some extent on Thursday night, but the Packers must not let him take over the game.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 3 things on Packers defense vs. Falcons: Dare Michael Penix to beat you
