The Green Bay Packers will attempt to win a sixth game in the last seven weeks when the Minnesota Vikings -- who have lost back-to-back games after a 6-0 start -- come to Lambeau Field on Sunday. This game has huge playoff implications. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers can increase their playoff chances to 74 percent with a win, but a loss would drop Green Bay's playoff chances to only 44 percent. And a third loss inside the division would put a big dent in the Packers' chances to win the NFC North for the first time since 2021. The bottom line: If the Packers want to host a playoff game in January, they better beat the Vikings at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
Previewing Packers-Vikings in Week 10 with managing editor Zach Kruse and contributor
Mark Oldacres:
What we're watching
Zach: The battle between the NFL's most explosive offense and the NFL's best chaos-causing defense is the main attraction, but I'm equally excited to see how Jonathan Gannon's defense handles a matchup with Kirk Cousins, especially with injuries creating a few question marks in the personnel. The Packers have created multiple takeaways in six straight games and currently lead the NFL in unblocked pressures, a notable feat in schematics and execution considering all the disruption Brian Flores and the Vikings have cooked up in 2026. Cousins is a veteran who can beat the blitz with his mind or arm, but's he's not a mobile quarterback, so a deluge of hits and sacks are possible if there's any indecision from No. 8 in his first game back in Minnesota. Expect Gannon to stay aggressive.
Mark: The inactives list. Green Bay has several key players with injury issues ahead of this one, especially on defense, where Xavier McKinney, Lukas Van Ness and Javon Bullard are all questionable to play, even if Bullard told reporters he will. Does Jonathan Gannon’s defense still work without McKinney? Hopefully we don’t find out. On offense, Kevin Zeitler was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday and then did not practice at all on Friday. Ideas of him finally starting could be out of the window.
Biggest reason for optimism
Zach: The Vikings have lost back-to-back games, will be without their leading receiver (TJ Hockenson) and arguably their most important defensive player (Blake Cashman) and are transitioning to another quarterback after making a panicked midseason trade. This is the rare team that started 6-0 but is suddenly on the ropes. The Vikings are talented and highly disruptive on defense, and adding Kirk Cousins could provide a spark on offense. There's no doubt that the Vikings could come to Green Bay and leave with a win. But the Packers have to feel good about this matchup, given how poorly the Vikings have played offensively and against the run since the bye, and considering Cousins has been back in Minnesota for less than a week. This is a golden opportunity to secure a very important win inside the NFC North.
Mark: Jordan Love is playing like an MVP right now and has the tools to torch any defense, especially aggressive ones like Minnesota’s. Love’s play has graduated to the level that Packers fans should enter any game with the confidence they can win it, and with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden at his disposal, Green Bay’s offense is an explosive play waiting to happen at all times.
Biggest reason for concern
Zach: The chaos potential. The Vikings defense thrives on sacks, takeaways and relentless pressure on the quarterback. More often than not this season, the Vikings have worn down opposing offenses physically and mentally, and eventually a big mistake or two is inevitable. Can the Packers avoid the game-changing mistakes that turned the first meeting on its head? Jordan Love has been a magic man when pressured lately, but the Packers can't expect him to pull a rabbit out of the hat on every snap against the blitz. He'll need help on Sunday.
Mark: The Packers’ offensive line has changed a lot since the Week 1 matchup with the Vikings. Some of that is beneficial, with veterans like Zeitler, Laken Tomlinson and Aaron Banks as options at guard rather than Jacob Monk and Donovan Jennings. Jordan Morgan is also playing much better football now. However, Green Bay has lost Zach Bako-Bewele and Sean Rhyan to injury since the start of the season, and this game will be a big test for John Williams at center especially. Love almost overcame a porous O-line against Minnesota earlier this season but the dam eventually broke. They must give Love more of a platform to succeed this time around.
Matchup to watch
Zach: Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Isaiah Rodgers. The NFL's most productive receiver duo will face one of the NFL's most stingy cover corners. Rodgers has played 362 snaps at perimeter cornerback and 252 total coverage snaps this season, and he's allowed only 63 receiving yards on 26 targets and 11 catches, per PFF. That's incredible in today's passing-heavy game. Pro Bowler Byron Murphy is no slouch on the other side for Minnesota. The blitz gets all the headlines for the Vikings defense, but the corners are good players. Can Watson and Golden be the receivers who get open quick and create big plays against Rodgers and Murphy?
Mark: Brandon Cisse vs. Justin Jefferson. Green Bay’s rookie corner had a baptism of fire in his NFL debut as Jefferson beat him for a 39-yard touchdown, but the 21-year-old has shown remarkable growth seemingly each and every week, having not given up a touchdown or a reception longer than 18 yards from Week 3 onwards. Now he gets to test himself against Jefferson once again and show what he has learned since they last faced off.
Packers win if…
Zach: They win the turnover battle. A simple blueprint, sure. But the Packers threw away a win in the opener because they gave the ball away when pressured in the second half, and both defenses have proven highly capable of pushing the buttons necessary to create takeaways this season. The Packers come into Sunday ranked second in takeaways after having created multiple takeaways in six straight games. Whichever quarterback better handles an aggressive defensive scheme and protects the football in big moments under pressure will likely win on Sunday.
Mark: The matchup between Jordan Love and Brian Flores is like a duel where both people are holding fireworks instead of revolvers. There is potential for a game-changing play on every snap and it could swing one way or the other. Matt LaFleur’s offense is more than capable of exposing Flores’ defense and picking up chunk gains over and over, but Love must also avoid the turnovers which ended up sinking them in the previous contest. Whoever comes out on the better side of the battle between Love and Flores probably wins the game.
Data dump
Zach: Blake Cashman, who is out with an injury, has been a game-wrecking blitzer for the Vikings. Per Next Gen Stats, he has 24 total pressures and 17 quick pressures this season, including an incredible seven quick pressures back in Week 1. The Vikings won't be any less aggressive without Cashman on Sunday, but avoiding him should help the Packers pass protection unit.
Mark: Minnesota’s defense ranks 21st in run stuff rate and 25th in explosive play rate allowed on the ground. Can the Packers build on the encouraging signs from the run game last week and keep the Vikings defensive at bay with a reasonably productive rushing attack? A breakaway run or two could be all they need rather than needing consistent 5-plus yard gains. On the other side, Kirk Cousins is 5th in NFL passer rating when kept clean but 25th when pressured. The Packers need to pressure him, but may need to do it with four, as he is a solid 16th in passer rating against the blitz.
Predictions
Zach: I drastically underestimated the Packers in New England last week, but I won't make the same mistake here. Kirk Cousins should provide a shot in the arm for the Vikings' comatose offense, and he might be one of the few quarterbacks in the league who could switch teams midweek and go play that same Sunday, but Jonathan Gannon's defense is complex, aggressive and playing at a high level. I don't expect the Vikings to score a lot of points. But can the Packers score enough to win against the NFL's mad man defensive coordinator? The offensive line, tight ends and running backs are in for a huge challenge against Brian Flores. But having eight weeks of tape and improvements along the offensive line should give the Packers a better chance to survive in the rematch, and Jordan Love is playing at an incredibly high level against pressure and the blitz. He's the X factor, and he easily pushes this matchup Green Bay's way. Love makes a few plays that Cousins can't against the blitz, and the Packers get a late stand on defense to preserve a one-score win. Packers 23, Vikings 17
Mark: The Packers looked on course for a comfortable victory against the Vikings in Week 1 before the ref show began and Green Bay unraveled. On Sunday we will find out if what we saw in the first three quarters of that game was real. Jordan Love has shown he can dice up aggressive coordinators such as Brian Flores, who will undoubtedly stick to his philosophy and blitz heavily in this game. Regardless of who starts on the offensive line, it should be a more professional unit than the one Green Bay rolled out in the season opener, helping Love’s case and giving them a chance for more consistent success. Kirk Cousins has been playing good football this season and even if he is rusty in Kevin O’Connell’s system, he should provide a legitimate boost to Minnesota’s passing attack, if for no other reason than he can actually get the ball to Justin Jefferson. This will be a tough game but the Packers should prevail in front of their home crowd. Packers 29, Vikings 21
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Vikings preview: Rivalry game with huge playoff implications
