The Green Bay Packers will face the Atlanta Falcons in their home opener on "Thursday Night Football" coming off a disjointed performance on offense, and Atlanta will not provide much respite.
Despite allowing 54 points over the first two games, the Falcons defense, coordinated by Jeff Ulbrich, has not been anywhere near as bad as the box score would suggest.
They gave up one touchdown in Week 1 against the Steelers – the other Pittsburgh score was a pick six – and that came on a short field after a turnover. Then against the Panthers in Week 2, 17 of the 34 points they surrendered came on short fields following takeaways and one big punt return.
On non-short fields, this defense has allowed 23 points in two games, and although it has not been
all Copper Rush’s fault, with Michael Penix set to return at quarterback, there is less risk they are put in those spots again this week.
Here are three big inflexion points in Green Bay’s matchup with Atlanta:
Can Jordan Love stay calm?
The offensive line is obviously a talking point once again with Zach Bako-Bewele suffering a season-ending injury and three other Packers offensive linemen on the injury report ahead of Thursday’s game.
However, it is important Love does his part to keep the offense steady when he is clean, after an uneven performance last week despite only being pressured on 28.1% of dropbacks.
Surprisingly, the Falcons are third in pressure rate so far despite not having Jalon Walker or James Pearce, and they are not even having to blitz to achieve it, ranking 31st in blitz rate. That means Love and company could face a different kind of test compared to the Vikings and Jets.
Former Packer Za’Darius Smith has three sacks and Gervon Dexter has eight pressures from the interior. Fortunately for Green Bay, Samson Ebukam (who also has eight pressures) has been an estimated DNP on the practice report so far this week with a hamstring.
Love has usually shredded the blitz. The real problem in the past has been when teams have managed to get pressure with four, and so far Atlanta has done that. It is a notable change from last year when Ulbrich’s defense blitzed at the second highest rate in 2025.
The raw pressure rate is a little deceiving though, as the Falcons only rank 23rd in the NFL in time to pressure and 24th in sack rate. It has been more of a slow burn pass rush, and if that continues, Love must be willing to hang in the pocket and not drop his eyes too early.
It is easy to understand how he was unsettled last week. The nightmare of Week 1 probably made him naturally more skittish, and the combination of losing two key offensive players to scary injuries on the first drive as well as the inclement weather will not have helped.
He has to overcome that though, and play the game he is in. If the O-line holds up well in pass protection again this week (admittedly, that may not happen) he has to trust it.
Can the Packers punish single-high through the air?
Unlike their last two opponents, Ulbrich uses a lot of single-high defenses, featuring plenty of cover three and cover one, which also means a decent amount of man coverage.
It is a more risky style of defense against the pass, and the Falcons are 24th in explosive pass plays allowed so far. They will also be without their best cornerback in A.J. Terrell, who was placed on IR with a groin injury.
Christian Watson ranks fourth among wide receivers in yards per route run versus single-high since the start of last season, while Tucker Kraft is second at tight end.
It is a similar situation to the last couple of games. if the Packers can protect Love to a reasonable degree. That will be the case for a lot of the season, but it is pertinent again in this matchup.
Does Matt LaFleur abandon the run game?
On the other hand, a heavy dosage of single-high means it is generally more difficult to run the ball, and the Packers have struggled to establish the ground game in the first two weeks even against two-high looks.
The O-line has to block it up, and Love admitted on Tuesday that “there’s too many times during the game where we’ve got some unblocked guys," but even when holes have been there for MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson and Chris Brooks, they have often failed to make the most of it.
Only Quinshon Judkins has fewer rushing yards over expectation than Lloyd (-25) through two games. Perhaps it is to be expected as he plays his first real stretch of NFL football, but it has exacerbated the issue. Johnson had a couple of nice runs but also a fumble against the Jets.
If Ulbrich is going to stick to his usual philosophy, it will be interesting to see whether LaFleur still tries to lean on the run game or just takes what the defense is presenting and airs it out instead.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: 3 things on Packers offense vs. Falcons: A different test awaits
