Just how important can a Week 7 game be in terms of playoff probability? According to various simulation models, Sunday's showdown between the 4-2 Green Bay Packers and 3-2 Detroit Lions is a big one in the NFC playoff race.
It should come as no surprise. The NFC North is once again highly competitive, with the undefeated Minnesota Vikings leading the way and each of the four teams sporting a winning record. If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would qualify for the postseason, with the Packers, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions holding the three wild-card spots. It probably goes without saying that every division game in the NFC North the rest of the way is going to be an important one in the NFC playoff race.
Packers-Lions is the
spotlight game of midseason schedule so far.
According to The Athletic's playoff simulator, the Packers have a 52 percent chance of making the playoffs entering Week 7. With a win over the Lions, the percentage goes up to 70 percent. If they lose, the percentage falls to 42 percent. That's a 28-point swing based on a win or loss.
Per Ben Baldwin, Packers-Lions is the highest "leverage" game in the NFC playoff race in Week 7. His model has a Packers win pushing their playoff probability to 75 percent, suggesting Matt LaFleur's team has a lot to gain with a win.
NFC Week 7 Playoff Leverage
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 21, 2026
-- Packers @ Lions is the NFC Game of the Week (TM)
-- Huge opportunities this week for the Cowboys/Panthers pic.twitter.com/pOfqidZ7B8
The Lions are in a similar boat. According to the Athletic's simulator, the Lions have a 25-point swing coming up: a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs with a win, and a 51 percent chance if they lose.
A few factors to consider: the Packers already have a division loss after falling to the Vikings in Week 1, while the Lions are about to play their first game inside the division this season. Green Bay probably can't lose another game against an NFC North rival and feel great about winning the division. In fact, the Athletic's simulator drops the Packers' division title chances to 6 percent if they lose on Sunday.
The Lions, however, will be motivated to win a home division game, especially after losing to the Packers at Ford Field during two of the last three years.
The Packers won't play another NFC North game until Nov. 15, when they host the Vikings, and the team's final two division matchups don't arrive until Week 16 (at Bears) and Week 18 (vs. Lions).
These probabilities are nothing more than the results of thousands of simulations, but they paint a picture of what's ahead and what individual results can mean later on. A loss at Ford Field on Sunday wouldn't sink the Packers or Lions; it's far too early in the season. The Packers still have 10 more games to play. But a loss would significantly hurt Green Bay's chances of winning the division and hosting a playoff game. The NFC North is an excellent division in 2026, and any loss to a division rival is going to impact the playoff race in a significant way.
This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers-Lions is important early-season game in NFC playoff race
