It was bound to happen. After the first eight weeks of the NFL season, underdogs in H-bomb big underdog games (+6.5 points or more) had covered in 22 of 41 games along with three pushes (ties).
Of those 22 covers, 11 were direct hits in H-bomb parlance, which translates to outright wins.
Week 9 was simply a disaster as all of the five favorites covered spreads that ranged from seven to 10 points. It turns out that it didn’t matter which games Jess Root and I selected. We wouldn’t have won any of them.
Three of the games were won by 21 or more points. The Chiefs (-10) defeated the Jets by 23, and the Jaguars (-9.5) also won by 23, beating the Ravens. The 49ers (-10) beat the Raiders by 21, the Seahawks (-8.5) defeated the Cardinals by 14 and the Lions
(-7) won by 10 over the Dolphins.
Jess’s pick was the Raiders, and I went with the Cardinals, who had covered in their four previous H-bomb eligible games, winning three outright. To my chagrin, a cover might have happened had they managed to score a touchdown on two tries from the 2-yard line late in the game.
Week 9 also featured losses in the two eligible games that had double-digit spreads. Through Week 8, the underdogs had covered six times in nine games. Oddly, the current 6-5 record for the underdogs includes a 4-0 record in games with a spread of 10.5 points.
Which brings us to Week 10, where there are four eligible games with all of the favorites road teams.
Week 10 big underdog games
- Buffalo Bills (-7.5) on the road vs. N.Y. Jets
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) on the road vs. Tennessee Titans
- Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) on the road vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- L.A. Rams (-9.5) on the road vs. Arizona Cardinals
Notable is that the latter two underdogs will be quarterbacked by rookies making their first NFL start. The Raiders' Fernando Mendoza has appeared in one game this season, while Arizona’s Carson Beck will be playing the first snaps of his regular-season career.
Jess is dropping his bomb on the Bills, who played Monday night in a victory over the Vikings. For some reason, I’m staying with the Cardinals, despite a wide receiver corps missing the top three players that opened the season: Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kendrick Bourne. The top three now, rookie Reggie Virgil, kick returner Devin Duvernay and Simi Fehoko, have combined for eight receptions this season.
In addition, center Hjalte Froholdt will miss his first start since signing with the Cardinals in 2023 because of a concussion. Replacement Hayden Conner: come on down and meet Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald.
H-bomb standings
Direct hit record (outright win) in parentheses
- Howard: 6-3 (4)
- Jess: 5-4 (0)
- Overall: 22-16-3 (11)
- Games +10 or more: 6-5 (3)
Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire's Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple Podcasts.
This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: NFL Week 10 big underdog picks of the week
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