Yes, it’s Week 6 already, and the H-bomb big 6.5-point or more underdogs have been very successful. In 23 games, the underdog has covered the spread 14 times and won the game outright in seven.
In the first five weeks of the season, double-digit favorites have covered twice in four games: the San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) over the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 and the Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5) over the Dolphins in Week 3.
In Week 4, Miami (+10.5) covered against the Minnesota Vikings in an outright loss and the Tennessee Titans (+11.5) covered in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens. That week, Jess Root and I each won as he dropped the bomb on Baltimore and mine was on Minnesota.
Jess pulled even with me in Week 5, thanks to the Philadelphia Eagles (+8) covering
against the Jacksonville Jaguars, while I went down hard as the Titans (+7.5) lost to the Houston Texans, 26-3.
That brings us to Week 6, where there are five eligible games and one with a double-digit spread. All the favorites are at home. Tennessee is H-bomb eligible for the fourth time in six weeks, tying Miami.
Week 6 big underdog games
- New England Patriots (-7) at home vs. N.Y. Jets
- Indianapolis Colts (-7) at home vs. Tennessee Titans
- L.A. Rams (-12.5) at home vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at home vs. L.A. Chargers
- San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) at home vs. Washington Commanders
Jess is casting his lot with the Commanders, who are coming off a horrible tie result against the N.Y. Giants. Perhaps most shocking is that the 5-0 49ers are only 7.5-point favorites.
Perhaps still in a dream state after my Friday morning colonoscopy, I am going back to the well for the team that has provided two of my wins: the Arizona Cardinals, losers to the Detroit Lions last week, 45-21.
The Cardinals were outright winners as 9.5-point underdogs in Week 1 against the L.A. Chargers and then covered as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 3 against the 49ers. In both games, the Cardinals were on the road, and Sunday, this road game will be played against the Rams (-12.5) in the same stadium as the game against the Chargers.
Will history repeat? Many will be stunned if it does.
H-bomb big underdogs standings
Direct hit record (outright win) in parentheses
- Howard: 3-2 (1)
- Jess: 3-2 (0)
- Overall: 14-7-2 (7)
Get more Cardinals and NFL coverage from Cards Wire's Jess Root and others by listening to the latest on the Rise Up, See Red podcast. Subscribe on Spotify, YouTube or Apple Podcasts.
This article originally appeared on Cards Wire: NFL Week 6 big underdog picks of the week
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