Week 1 has brought about a ton of great college football action, and we get the privilege of watching an early ACC bout to end the week. The No. 20 SMU Mustangs (9-4 last season) face off against the Florida State Seminoles (1-0, 5-7 last season) on Labor Day
The Seminoles didn't start off as bright as people expected against New Mexico State. Sure, they won 34-17, but they were expected towin by much more. New Mexico State quarterback Trey Hedden (26/42, 272 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) outperformed FSU starter Ashton Daniels (17/27, 202 yards, one touchdown, one interception). The biggest reason why Florida State won was their running game amassing 217 yards and three touchdowns on 39 carries, with Ousmane Kromah garnering 115 yards and a touchdown on 14
carries.
That gives the SMU Mustangs plenty of motivation to start their season off with a bang. Last season was a tad bit of a disappointment after making the College Football Playoff in 2024. The Mustangs went 9-4, with several brutal losses among the group. They lost to 5-7 Baylor 48-45 on a missed field goal, lost 13-12 against Wake Forest on a walk-off field goal, and lost 38-35 against Cal on another missed field goal.
Despite a strong 6-2 record last season, the tiebreakers weren't on their side in the ACC championship race, essentially blocking their chance at making another CFP appearance. They won the Holiday Bowl against the Arizona Wildcats to end the season, but it's safe to say Rhett Lashlee and company are expecting more from this season, especially with many tabbing them as the second-best team in the ACC.
SMU vs. FSU game odds
All college football odds via BetMGM
Over-Under: Over 53 (-110), Under 53 (-110)
Spread: SMU -3 (-105), FSU +3 (-115)
Money Line: SMU -145, FSU +125
SMU vs. FSU prediction, pick:
This is a classic trap game for SMU, with the Mustangs' first game on the road appearing in a raucous Doak Campbell Stadium on an extended break with the nation watching.
Kevin Jennings is the most important player for the Mustangs. He can take advantage of a Seminoles' defense with nine missed tackles, eight penalties, and busted coverages. They also have one of the most proven offensive lines in the nation.
FSU had just 17 points by the midpoint of the third quarter against New Mexico State, but at least their running game was able to come through. SMU's defense is going to be much harder to run against, with a linebacker duo (Brandon Booker, Alex Kilgore) that could be one of the best in the league, too. If the Mustangs make Ashton Daniels try to make plays, they should be in good shape, as Daniels has more turnover-worthy plays (42) than touchdowns (25) in his career.
SMU has a lot of continuity on its roster, which is why it's ranked so high despite finishing 9-4 last season. I expect them to come out as a more complete unit against Florida State. Give me SMU, and it might be an under-type game with defensive stops instead of offensive prowess.
Score Prediction: SMU 27, FSU 10
Best Bet: Under 53
SMU vs. FSU channel, start time, streaming:
Date: Monday, Sept. 7, 2026
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Live Stream: ESPN App, FuboTV
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This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: No. 20 SMU vs. FSU: Week 1 Betting Odds, Prediction
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