The 24-team College Football Playoffis the main topic of conversation in the sport. The past weekend of incredible drama and huge surprises underscored the point that in a 24-team CFP, this past Saturday wouldn't have meant nearly as much. Texas, with two losses, would still be in solid position to make a 24-team field. The same goes for other teams which lost a second game. In a 24-team field, three-loss teams will get in and a few four-loss teams might sneak in the back door. Fans' worries about the expanded playoff are legitimate. However, there's a fuller story to be told, and right now, the Big 12 is a central part of it.
Big 12 CFP odds
The Big 12's chances of getting at least two if not three College Football Playoff teams rose significantly after BYU's
victory over Notre Dame. BYU's playoff position looks very solid at the moment. If Utah beats BYU, the quality of the Utes' win will be even better. If Texas Tech finishes with at least 11 wins, the BYU win over Notre Dame will boost the Big 12's reputation and give the Red Raiders a better chance of making the CFP field.
Big 12 football schedule
The Big 12 football schedule did not put BYU against Texas Tech this year. Texas Tech is not playing Utah, either. Those two possible matchups - Texas Tech against BYU or Utah - can't happen until the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU-Utah is the only head-to-head matchup among the top three CFP contenders from the conference.
Expanded conferences are a problem
As you can see, Texas Tech is guaranteed to not play at least one of Utah or BYU. Maybe the Red Raiders will play one of those two teams, but they won't play both - not in the regular season. This is how and why the expanded size of conferences get in the way of determining true conference champions. It's hard to call a team a true conference champion when it doesn't play all of the foremost contenders. This problem didn't exist in 10-team conferences in past decades. Every team played the other nine schools in the conference. In an 11- or 12-team conference, the problem wasn't completely eliminated, but it existed less often and on a smaller scale. When people contemplate the loss of conference championship games, the idea that a "true" conference championship is being blown up is not as airtight as it might seem.
Big 12 reputation
The Big 12's reputation was in such bad shape that BYU was a double-digit underdog to Notre Dame at home. There was a lot of built-in brand bias for the Irish and against the Big 12. It reinforces the point that if it's not the Big Ten or SEC, a college football conference won't get the benefit of the doubt. This leads us to our next and most central point:
24-team CFP will give college football fans a fuller picture of reality
Maybe the Big 12 is for real. Maybe it's still a fraud. However, with three Big 12 teams possibly making the CFP this year, it should dawn on people that three Big 12 teams (if they all get in) will have a chance to prove themselves. Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but the point is they will all get a chance. Moreover, the fact that they won't all play each other (again, Texas Tech is guaranteed to not play at least one of Utah or BYU) will leave questions unresolved at the end of the regular season. The CFP will fill that gap and give the sport more matchups which didn't get played in the regular season.
Game 13
Texas Tech won't play either BYU or Utah (and maybe not even both). None of the top three teams in the Big 12 played a prominent SEC or Big Ten team this season. Utah played Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. Texas Tech played Oregon State. You can be skeptical of how good or deserving Texas Tech, Utah and BYU all are. That's not a problem. The solution is simple: Let's make sure that if they're all 11-1 after 12 games, they all get into the CFP field and all get to play SEC or Big Ten teams (or Miami, or Notre Dame) in a first-round playoff game.
Conclusion
It might work out this year, in a 12-team field, that all three Big 12 teams get in and gain chances to prove themselves. In a 24-team CFP, it will be a near certainty that the top three teams in the Big 12, after playing relatively soft nonconference schedules (with the sole exception of BYU facing Notre Dame) during the regular season, get tested by Big Ten, SEC, or other top opponents in the playoff. We want to see these proving-ground moments. We will get more of them, not fewer, in the 24-team CFP. Even if teams don't schedule robustly and aggressively in the regular season, the first- and second-round CFP games will essentially become those games. What we essentially have is a situation in which if teams don't schedule boldly in September, those kinds of games will show up ... but in December. We're going to get more good games, just later in the year.
It won't kill college football. The 24-team CFP will merely delay good matchups by three months in many cases. It's a highly flawed entity, but in some ways, it is reducing the damage done to college football the past 10 years instead of making it worse. The Big 12 is an example of why, for all the negative elements of a 24-team playoff, the plan will also offer improvements which will cancel out those negative dimensions.
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This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: Big 12 shows why 24-team College Football Playoff won't be a disaster
