Week 11 of the College Football season gets us closer to the precipice of championship weekend. The ACC has a great slate to end the season, including a loaded one this week. The Duke Blue Devils will try to upset the Miami Hurricanes in the Darian Mensah homecoming game.
Duke (7-2) has been on a tear recently. Ever since they lost two straight, including becoming the only ACC team to lose to Georgia Tech this season, they've won three in a row. They beat Virginia in an ACC championship rematch, defeated Boston College 47-2 at home and walloped in-state rival N.C. State 41-3. Nate Sheppard looks like the best running back in the ACC, and the defense, which has been good all year, looks like it's on another level.
Miami (8-1) suffered its first
loss of the season: a close 31-24 loss to Notre Dame. Despite losing superstar wideout Malachi Toney and being down 24-3 at one point, the Hurricanes brought it to within one score. Cooper Bartake was close to catching the game-tying touchdown with 3:43 left to go in the fourth quarter, but he was ruled out of bounds by a few feet. As a result, Miami fell down to the No. 7 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings.
If you are looking for some betting advice for the matchup, we've got you covered. Here are the latest odds for the game, courtesy of BetMGM.
Duke vs. Miami game odds
All college football odds via BetMGM
- Money Line: Miami -560, Duke +410
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110), Under 54.5 (-110)
- Spread: Miami -13.5 (-110), Duke +13.5 (-110)
Duke vs. Miami prediction, pick
This is a must-win game for both teams to stay alive in the College Football Playoff and ACC. Duke already has two losses in the ACC, and they still have to play Clemson and Wake Forest. For Miami, the committee seemed fine with them after their loss against Notre Dame, but if they lose again, the committee might push them out of the top 12.
There's also history going into this matchup, too. Darian Mensah was the quarterback at Duke last season, and he led them to an ACC title. However, due to being 8-5, the Blue Devils became the first Power 4 team in the 12-team CFP to win their conference and not make the playoffs.
The thought was that Mensah would stay, with rumors of him even signing an extension, but he transferred to Miami on Jan. 27, 2026, right after their national championship loss. That left Duke scrambling for options at the quarterback position, settling for Walker Eget. He brought Duke's leading receiver, Cooper Bartake, with him too. Duke is going to want revenge.
Mensah and the Miami offense aren't as untouchable as they were with Toney. Their running game wasn't good in the loss, and Mensah completed just 24 of his 43 passes. He did throw three touchdowns still, but the offense didn't get going until the fourth quarter.
The Hurricanes' defensive line will be a unit to watch. They've been good all season, but they're going to have to contain Nate Sheppard, something that no team has been able to do this season. Then again, Duke hasn't played a defensive line like Miami.
It'll come down to who can get their passing offense in sync the most. Despite the injury to Toney, I trust Miami to do that. There aren't a ton of dynamic weapons on Duke's recieving core to take advantage of Miami, and Mensah should be accurate again. Give me Miami by the slimmest of margins.
Score Prediction: Miami 34, Duke 30
Best Bet: Duke +14.5
Duke vs. Miami start time, streaming
Date: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026
Time: Noon ET
TV: ABC, ESPN Deportes
Stream: ESPN, FuboTV
Watch Duke vs. Miami on FuboTV (Free Trial)
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This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: Duke vs. Miami: Week 11 Betting Odds, Prediction
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