The New York Jets have had their share of offensive inconsistencies through the first three weeks of the season, but they've been in every game. They've been competitive. The arrows are pointing upward.
Garrett Wilson has been box office. He is one of the steadiest pieces of the operation, one who passes every eyeball test. Recently, we were given numbers to illustrate how well he is playing.
According to Next Gen Stats, Wilson leads the NFL in Catch Rate Over Expected (CROE) at +23.6% among players with at least 15 targets. Mike Evans ranks second at +22.1%, followed by Jalen Coker (+18.9%), CeeDee Lamb (+18.6%) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+17.5%).
NFL leaders in Catch Rate Over Expected, per@NextGenStats (min. 15 targets) Garrett Wilson (+23.6%)
Mike Evans (+22.1%) Jalen Coker (+18.9%) CeeDee Lamb (+18.6%) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+17.5%) pic.twitter.com/qsHp63FMDv
— SleeperJets (@SleeperJets) September 28, 2026
That is more than simply a statistic showing how often Wilson catches the football. CROE is designed to measure how frequently a receiver makes catches compared with what would be expected given the circumstances of each target.
Next Gen Stats factors in several elements surrounding a target, including route depth, defender separation, proximity to the sideline and the game situation. Each target receives an expected catch probability, and the receiver's actual catch rate is compared with that expectation.
Garrett Wilson is making difficult catches look routine
A positive CROE means the receiver is catching passes more frequently than the model would expect in those circumstances. Wilson's +23.6% mark is the best in the league among the receivers who meet the minimum target requirement.
That is significant for a Jets offense still finding its footing under Frank Reich. Geno Smith has increasingly leaned on Wilson as the season has progressed, and the receiver has provided his quarterback with a reliable target even when the circumstances haven't been ideal. Wilson's ability to win contested opportunities and complete catches that are statistically difficult gives Smith another level of confidence when a play doesn't develop exactly as designed.
The Jets still have plenty to figure out offensively, particularly in the running game and in finishing drives. But Wilson's performance is becoming one of the clearest positives of the season, and Next Gen Stats has now quantified just how far above expectations he has performed when the ball comes his way.
If Wilson continues winning at this rate, the Jets have a legitimate difference-maker they can build around as the offense develops. For a team searching for consistency, having a receiver who routinely turns difficult opportunities into completions is a pretty good place to start.
This article originally appeared on Jets Wire: Jets' Garrett Wilson ranks as NFL's best in an important metric
