Eight months ago, I warned dynasty managers that the time to “sell high” on Kyler Murray would be "after he signs with a new team." People were clinging to a fantasy value that no longer existed. Here's one key stat that helps explain why the Cardinals -- and now possibly the Vikings -- have given up on him, and why it's entirely conceivable that he'll never be a Week 1 starter again.
Murray will turn 30 next year, which is around when most dual-threat QBs begin their steep statistical declines. His carries per game have kept dropping. During his peak campaign in 2020, he had 13 carries for 26 yards inside the opposing 10-yard line, converting them into six touchdowns. By comparison, in 11 games these past two seasons, he has negative four yards and
zero scores.
But that's not the most compelling stat, at least to me. From his NFL debut through his 2024 season, he averaged one fourth-down throw every 1.3 games. These past two seasons, he's averaged a fourth-down throw every 3.6 games.
One could argue that this year's Vikings haven't needed to go for it much on fourth down. But in last week's loss to the Lions, trailing with only three minutes left, they opted to punt on fourth-and-five rather than put the game in Murray's hands. The Lions have scored the third-most points and lead the league in first downs per game. But their head coach seemingly did not trust Murray.
As I discussed seven years ago, quarterbacks with Murray's size have never excelled in the NFL. Doug Flutie came closest. Murray might be the best 5'10"-and-under quarterback to ever play in this league. But if Carson Wentz plays even slightly better in the coming weeks, Murray's time as an NFL starter could be over.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Why Kyler Murray's dynasty value might be lower than Carson Wentz's
