Derrick Henry is an all-time great. Full stop. He was also vastly overvalued in fantasy this summer. If you drafted him, here are the warning signs.
Entering Week 17 last season, the Ravens' playoff hopes were dim. To reach the postseason, they needed to beat the 9-5-1 Packers on the road; the Steelers needed to lose to the lowly Browns; and then Baltimore needed to beat the Steelers in Week 18. The biggest problem was that Lamar Jackson was out for Week 17, replaced by the far more overmatched Tyler Huntley.
Derrick Henry put his team on his back, posting 45.6 fantasy points on 36 carries. It was championship week for many fantasy managers. Those who rostered Henry that day probably won. His heroics matched his on-field heroics for managers needing
a blow-up performance.
An unusual circumstance glossed over this reality: At nearly 32, Henry was in the midst of a gradual fantasy decline. Entering the fantasy playoffs, he was averaging "only" 14.5 fantasy points on 4.6 yards per carry. If his season had ended there, he would have been outside the top 14 in fantasy points per game.
Henry's challenge is that as his targets continually decline, his fantasy value increasingly hinges on rushing efficiency and touchdowns. In other words, he's not getting better as a fantasy player. Henry's preseason RB10 ADP assumes sustained greatness. That will be difficult to achieve.
For a deeper dive into Henry's 2026 outlook, listen to this recent podcast episode.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Why Derrick Henry cannot realistically meet 2026 fantasy expectations
