Several times this summer, I repeatedly and publicly warned managers to fade Christian McCaffrey at his RB3 ADP. If you drafted him, it's not too late to sell high.
What does McCaffrey have going for him, aside from being one of the most talented running backs of the past decade? His monster usage in the passing game. That's the key.
It's what separates him from the other 27 running backs throughout NFL history who racked up 450+ touches in a season. Collectively, they averaged 56.9 catches during those blow-up campaigns, including the playoffs. McCaffrey nearly doubled that last year, racking up 113 in the regular season and playoffs.
The differences largely end there, at least for our purposes as fantasy managers. Because, on average, those 27
RBs' fantasy production dropped more than 30% the following season. In real numbers, that equated to a drop of roughly 100 fantasy points. Among the 15 "older" running backs (those who turned 27 or older the year after hitting 450+ touches), the fantasy-point decline was over 36%.
McCaffrey is 30 years old. Rookie Kaelon Black looked terrific operating behind him. The Niners don't need to run McCaffrey into the ground, and they probably can't afford to -- and neither can he, if history is an indicator.
If he can manage to get through the season unscathed, his anticipated decreased usage will make him no better than a minor bust based on preseason ADP. The more likely outcome is multiple missed games and declining efficiency, keeping him outside the top 14 RBs.
With soft matchups around the corner (Miami and Arizona), you might roll the dice and see if he can dominate in both contests. But if you want to sell high, you're running out of time.
For a deeper dive on why McCaffrey is a huge risk, listen to this recent podcast episode.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Why fantasy managers should sell high on Christian McCaffrey
