Many first-round WR NFL draft picks have good careers. But some unexpectedly flop. Here's the data that explains the risks for fantasy managers.
Of the 58 retired first-round NFL draft picks since 2003, 36 (62%) have averaged less than 10.0 fantasy points per game for their careers. Incredibly, half of them (29 total) have averaged less than 8.0 fantasy points per game. For context, last year Xavier Worthy averaged 7.9 points, making him the WR61 in points per game. Fantasy managers rarely benefited when starting him.
Worthy is one of several former first-round picks whose career trajectory remains murky. His preseason ADP was WR52, just ahead of Deebo Samuel and Jalen Coker. Worthy is a "pressure-point" fantasy wideout -- someone who's good enough
to start in some leagues, but not good enough to trust.
Brian Thomas Jr. is another former first-rounder who flashed as a rookie (mostly when backup Mac Jones was under center). But he's surpassed 12 fantasy points only twice in his past 15 outings. Many managers starting Thomas tomorrow aren't necessarily expecting a strong performance; they're hoping for a decent performance.
Admittedly, I sometimes bump the fantasy values of first-rounders solely because of their draft position, at least early in their careers. But clinging to the hope that a former high-priced rookie will eventually find his NFL footing isn't a great strategy. Yes, sometimes they break through. But as managers, we have to be prepared for the possibility that their best days are behind them.
For a deeper dive into the fantasy data for first-round WRs, listen to this podcast.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Xavier Worthy and Brian Thomas Jr.: Week 2 fantasy start-sit dilemmas
