Conventional wisdom suggests TreVeyon Henderson's injury makes Rhamondre Stevenson the Patriots' most valuable fantasy RB. For Week 1? Sure. But it probably won't last. Here's why managers who drafted Stevenson should sell high soon.
I have a home-grown research spreadsheet called "First-Week Breakouts." It shows that the top-five fantasy scorers each Week 1 since 2015 averaged 27.4 points. That was 15.7% of their total output for that season. Their average preseason ADP was 20, but their end-of-season fantasy scoring ranking averaged 22.
What happened? Why did Week 1 breakout stars frequently underwhelm (relatively speaking) the rest of the year. Well, starting running backs, on average, miss multiple games per year. They also sometimes give
up their workhorse role as the season progresses, becoming more of a 1A back versus a bell cow.
In Rhamondre Stevenson's case, a younger and arguably higher-upside option is waiting in the wings. Once TreVeyon Henderson gets healthy, the future star should move into a backfield timeshare and realistically could assume a 1A role by November, if not sooner.
If you drafted Stevenson, tonight might be the ideal time to sell high, because based on historical data, his odds of regressing significantly are far greater than his odds of maintaining must-start value.
For a deeper dive into Stevenson and Henderson, listen to this recent podcast episode.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Why Fantasy Managers Should Sell High on Rhamondre Stevenson
