You already know Jahmyr Gibbs is a must-start RB in fantasy. But did you know that—based on historical data—his Sunday workload is a warning sign of a significant regression?
Let's call running backs who play on Sunday and then play four days later (on Thursday) "Sunday-Thursday RBs." 311 times since the start of the 2012 season, Sunday-Thursday RBs have racked up 15+ Sunday touches. Those RBs averaged significantly fewer touches and fewer fantasy points on Thursday. Not always, but usually, the more Sunday touches they had, the greater the average drop-off in Thursday touches and points.
This past Sunday, for only the 19th time since 2012, a Sunday-Thursday RB racked up 30+ touches in the first leg of that two-game set. Even more notably, for only the sixth
time, that RB had at least 34 touches. This was the incredible Gibbs -- the locked-in, preseason overall-1 ADP fantasy star.
But such massive Sunday workloads have a cost. For example, the 18 previous 30+ touch Sunday RBs averaged 24.9 fantasy points on 32.8 touches. Four days later, they averaged only 16.4 points on 20.4 touches. Most of them were fantasy stars on par with (or nearly on par with) Gibbs -- for example, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, and Ezekiel Elliott. Most were must-start RBs, and some of them completely (and unexpectedly) flopped on Thursday.
Managers can't conceivably bench Gibbs. But you should understand that tonight's risks are unique and historically relevant.
For a deeper dive on Sunday-Thursday RBs, listen to this recent podcast episode.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Bills vs. Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs and Sunday-Thursday RB fantasy declines
