With Jordan Mason sidelined and rookie Demond Claiborne not yet ready to step up, Aaron Jones has been a huge fantasy bargain. A crash is coming.
This summer, I discussed why investing minimal draft capital in Jones, Mason, and Claiborne collectively would yield a high probability of fantasy success. This was based on historical data I compiled on RB teammates over roughly the past 30 years.
Entering Week 1, Mason's overall ADP was 101, while Jones was back at 119. Claiborne was "undraftable" at 260. Managers in 12-team leagues could have used a ninth, 10th, and final draft pick to get all three. The result? Jones is currently the RB19. That's a solid investment.
But unlike some investments, this one won't "mature." Well, age-wise, it will mature,
because Jones isn't getting any younger. Despite his fantasy prowess, he's averaging a career-low 4.1 yards per carry. He's broken only one tackle on 81 touches. Jones won't suddenly get better as the season goes on. We're seeing him at his best at 31.
This is an optimal time to unload Jones. You probably can't trade him for RB19 value, but RB24-26 is realistic. Someone like Omarion Hampton (currently the RB26) could be a solid swap, giving you an ascending talent on a team whose schedule will get much softer by early November.
Basically, managers shouldn't hold onto unsustainable value for too long. Jones is producing at a level that his advanced metrics suggest he can't maintain. Still, when Mason is healthy, this could become a hot-hand backfield. Strike while you still can.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: Is this fantasy managers' last day to sell high on Aaron Jones?
