This past Sunday, JK Dobbins out-touched teammate RJ Harvey 20-3. Has Dobbins seized control of the backfield? Or was Harvey being rested for tonight? Historical trends suggest the latter.
Here's an example: On the Sunday before Thanksgiving two years ago, Jahmyr Gibbs out-touched Lions teammate David Montgomery 24-11. Four days later, it flipped: Montgomery out-touched Gibbs 24-11. What happened? The team rested one in advance of a short week.
Since 2012 (as far back as my homegrown spreadsheet goes), among running backs who play on Sunday and then Thursday, those with 20+ touches on Sunday average 13.7% fewer touches on Thursday, resulting in a 16.9% drop in fantasy points.
The Broncos have two active, starter-caliber RBs. Denver just gave Dobbins
20+ touches for the first time in his past 10 games. He's averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and hasn't broken a tackle on nearly 70 touches, while averaging a career-low 1.7 yards after first contact on rushing attempts. Relatively speaking, Dobbins was force-fed on Sunday despite playing some of the worst football of his career.
I think it was a strategic scheduling move. Harvey's career-low three touches on Sunday came out of nowhere, after an effective 17-touch performance the week before. Fantasy managers should be wary of relying on Dobbins tonight, as Harvey should cut his usage significantly.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and the Thursday Night Football fantasy trap
