Some fantasy running backs have far exceeded preseason expectations through the first two weeks. Are they for real, or should managers look elsewhere?
David Montgomery's incredible three-touchdown Houston debut in Week 1 was followed by a horrendous outing in Week 2. Optimists will shrug off his latest performance. He's the RB12, after all, and is on pace for a healthy 264 touches. Woody Marks hasn't done much to challenge him atop the depth chart. All is good.
Except... as discussed this summer, Montgomery entered this season with two red flags. The first was a worse offensive line than what he enjoyed in Detroit, and the second was an abysmal broken-tackle rate: only three broken tackles on 182 touches last season. He currently has one broken tackle on 31
touches, but has one of the lowest yards-after-first-contact you'll ever see from a starter: 1.0.
The worst part is that Montgomery has 2.7 yards per carry against the Bengals and the Bills. Tougher games are ahead. I urged readers to sell high after Week 1. It's probably not too late to unload him.
Meanwhile, D'Andre Swift is the RB4, mostly because of his 32.4-point explosion in Week 1, when the Bears hung 59 points on the Panthers. The fantasy market did not anticipate this, as Swift's preseason ADP was RB19.
He normally wouldn't get enough volume to sustain this. Forty touches in two games puts him on pace for 340 for the season, which is more than 10% above his all-time high in the regular season. As long as he stays healthy, Swift could enjoy a career year. But rather than near-elite, his realistic ceiling would put him around the top 10-12.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: For real or forget? David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift fantasy values
