Some fantasy WRs have far exceeded preseason expectations through the first two weeks (and many are not). Are the surprisingly big performers for real, or should fantasy managers sell high?
Coming off a WR58 campaign in points per game, Jalen Coker had (not surprisingly) a WR54 preseason ADP. The fantasy market believed that Tetairoa McMillan was the clear-cut #1, because of course he's the #1, right? McMillan was the #8 overall pick in last year's draft. Coker was an undrafted free agent from Holy Cross -- only the second NFL wideout in the past half-century to graduate from there (the other is Kalif Raymond).
Coker was primed to post better-than-expected numbers on a team without a strong #3 WR option. As a 2024 rookie, his quarterbacks (primarily
Bryce Young) had a 108.8 passer rating when targeting him. That jumped to 117.8 last year. That's particularly remarkable given Young's frequent struggles.
On the downside, Coker has benefited from an unsustainable offensive output. The Panthers are #2 in points per game. They will almost certainly crash back to earth, and Coker has nowhere to go but down. On a per-game basis, I expect him to eventually settle in the top 26-30 range. If you can cash out for top-20 value, you'll probably win that trade.
Meanwhile, rookie Denzel Boston has excelled so far, establishing himself as the Browns' #1 receiver. It's occurred at the expense of fellow rookie K.C. Concepcion, Harold Fannin, and especially Jerry Jeudy. For context, those three guys have scored 35.1 fantasy points, which is only a hair above Boston's 34.4.
But a common mistake managers make is ignoring how touchdowns affect fantasy production. Cleveland has three offensive TDs, and Boston has scored two of them. That's unsustainable. Conception has the same number of targets and more receptions. At some point, the other skill players will get more involved, and in an arguably sub-par offense, Boston's ceiling is significantly capped. He's a big sell-high WR.
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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: For real or forget? Jalen Coker and Denzel Boston fantasy values
