Welcome back, friends, to another season of domination. Week 1 is always challenging because there are no trends or anomalies to exploit. Plus, each site has soft pricing for its players, as their algorithms have not yet kicked in for the year. As always, I will take a gander at the tealeaves on a game-by-game basis and use my statistical model to produce an expected point total for each player deemed reasonable to select for that week's games.
For those new to the Dominator: We begin each week with a suggested lineup for DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD) and Fanball (FB). This lineup is for each site's main slate GPP tournaments. I then break down each of the four primary positions, giving you the projected top four scorers regardless of price and two
sleepers who should exceed their price-to-point value. Next, I provide you with a full table of prices for each player on both DK and FD, along with a weighted grade. Players with an !! next to their name are not expected to reach 2.5x their value. Players with ^^ next to their name are expected to top 3x their value. If a player has neither mark next to their name, they are projected to finish between 2.5x and 3x their value.
We release the Dominator Friday night just in time to set your DFS lineups for the weekend. Plus, check back on Saturday for our Primetime Dominator, breaking down the top players on the SNF-MNF slates. As always, hit me up on Twitter (X) at @NewClearHarley for roster questions or for late changes and bonus sleepers on Sunday morning.
Recommended DFS lineups
*Note: Fanball includes the Sunday night game on their Main Slate. DraftKings and FanDuel do not.
DraftKings Lineup: Baker Mayfield ($5.9k), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8.0k), RB David Montgomery ($6.0k), WR DeVonta Smith ($6.6k), WR Chris Godwin Jr. ($5.2k), WR Tre Tucker ($4.80), TE Juwan Johnson ($3.7k), FLEX De'Von Achane ($7.0k), DST Jacksonville Jaguars ($3.4k)
FanDuel Lineup: QB Joe Burrow ($8.2k), RB D'Andre Swift ($6.6k), RB David Montgomery ($6.3k), WR Ja'Marr Chase ($8.9k), WR Chris Godwin ($6.3k), WR Tre Tucker ($5.6k), TE Dallas Goedert ($5.3k), FLEX Jahmyr Gibbs ($9.1k), DST Atlanta Falcons ($3.7k)
FanBall Lineup: QB Baker Mayfield ($6.0k), RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8.4k), RB D'Andre Swift ($6.2k), WR CeeDee Lamb ($7.6k), WR Chris Godwin ($5.3k), WR/TE Dallas Goedert ($4.4k), TE Sam LaPorta ($4.6k), FLEX David Montgomery ($6.3k), SUPERFLEX Dak Prescott ($6.2k)
*Note: The system codes player salaries according to expected output. !! = Less than 2.5x value, No Symbol = 2.5x value, ^^ = Greater than 3x value.
Quarterback
Weekly Strategy - I'm fading Josh Allen this week against a tough Houston defense. Among the higher-priced options, only Joe Burrow feels safe. If I don't use Burrow, I will pivot down to the second tier and target Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield or Justin Herbert. Tyler Shough feels like an over-owned trap this week. Detroit's defense is the definition of "mid", but I see a ceiling for him, which doesn't account for his price being so close to that second group. I'll have some exposure, but think twice about over-committing here, as his ownership will be high. The cheaper options that I prefer are Jacoby Brissett and Kirk Cousins.
Fantasy four-pack
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD), Bengals (vs. TB) Vegas has assigned this game the highest combined total. I tend to trust them. Burrow has two elite-level WR targets. He also has a talented pass catcher out of the backfield. Tampa's run defense is better than its pass defense, so expect the Bengals to air it out. This is normal for Burrow, who threw for three or more TDs in half of the games he played last year after returning from his early-season injury. His floor will be 275-2 here, but I see a legit path to 330-3.
Justin Herbert ($6,100 DK, $7,600 FD), Chargers (vs. ARI) Arizona retooled its defense this offseason to improve a woeful all-around unit. Unfortunately for them, this is only Week 1, so I'm hesitant to anoint them immediately as the second-coming of the 1985 Bears. The steep learning curve for their secondary gets its first test of the season travelling to LA to face Quinton Johnston and Ladd McConkey. Each makes a great stack with Herbert, who will feed them each 100-1 and make this the first potential three-legged stack of the year.
Jared Goff ($6,000 DK, $7,800 FD), Lions (vs. NO): Detroit finished top-3 in both passing yards and passing TDs at home last season. Since joining Detroit, Goff has thrown for 39 more regular-season home TDs than road TDs, despite playing only two more home games. With the second-highest line on the slate, I expect both offenses to move the ball successfully. Goff should top 300 yards with at least two scores.
Baker Mayfield ($5,900 DK, $7,500 FD), Buccaneers (@ CIN) Mayfield just signed his big contract extension, so I hope he doesn't suffer fat-wallet syndrome. The Bengals have dramatically updated their pass rush, but Baker has just too many weapons to choose from. Even with potential lingering injuries to Emeka Egbuka (toe) and Jalen McMillan (knee), the Buccaneers' weapons are too deep to be held in check. If they both play (and I believe they will), both teams could score 35+ here in a shootout.
Sleepers
Jacoby Brissett ($5,100 DK, $7,000 FD), Cardinals (@ LAC) Consider this the first week of many of watching garbage-time Brissett lead the Cardinals to a valiant but failed comeback attempt. With three legitimate pass-catching options to feed, Brissett will keep this one interesting as he attempts to keep up with the Chargers. Trey McBride makes the safest stack, but I like the team to force-feed Marvin Harrison Jr. to remind the public why they spent a top draft pick on the second-generation talent.
Kirk Cousins ($5,000 DK, $6,700 FD), Raiders (vs. MIA) I liked this play a lot more before Brock Bowers had his meniscus shaved just before Week 1. With that said, Miami is so rotten across the board that the Raiders should win this game going away even without him. Injury questions also haunt Ashton Jeanty (ankle), although he appears ready to play. If he is limited or out, the team will lean even more on the passing game. Cousins has familiarity with Jalen Nailor from their time with the Vikings, and he has developed a strong rapport with Tre Tucker this summer. These two are my favorites to benefit from Bowers' absence as Cousins throws for 250-2.
Running Back
Weekly Strategy - Jahmyr Gibbs is the priciest option. He is also the safest, and his price is roughly $1k less than it will be for the rest of the season. Bijan Robinson is cheaper, but his matchup is less appealing. Still, there is an argument for using both this week, while depth pieces at other positions are also cheap. Omarion Hampton makes a fine pivot, although Arizona's defense is improved. If I choose to pivot at RB1, veteran Derrick Henry is probably where I will land. You can also consider De'Von Achane, since someone has to accumulate the stats in that game, or Chase Brown in a high-scoring game. Three strong options stand out at RB2: D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery and Bhayshul Tuten. Tony Pollard is also in play as he should see little competition for touches. Chuba Hubbard and Tyler Allgeier both would be great RB2/FLEX options if their backfield mates miss the game due to injury. Lastly, MarShawn Lloyd is likely to be universally owned because of his salary. The matchup isn't elite, and neither is he. I'd fade him unless you need the money savings for elsewhere.
Fantasy four-pack
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000 DK, $9,100 FD), Lions (vs. NO). Detroit allowed David Montgomery to mosey down to Houston, leaving the entire Lions' backfield to Gibbs. Even with Montgomery in tow, Gibbs was a top-five fantasy running back last season. Early projections suggest that Gibbs may see nearly 50% ownership. That is not perfect from a GPP build standpoint, but the salary is too good to ignore. With no NFL-level backup on their active roster and a non-running quarterback, Gibbs should handle 95% of the Lions' ground touches. Last season, Detroit averaged over 120 rushing yards per game. Most of that will go to Gibbs, and his receiving numbers will be just gravy.
Bijan Robinson ($7,700 DK, $8,800 FD), Falcons (@ PIT) With both Michael Penix Jr. (knee) and Tua Tagovailoa (back/lack of talent) inactive for this game, the Falcons will hand the reins to Cooper Rush. Fortunately for Atlanta, there is a legitimate argument that he might have the most talent among these three quarterbacks. In the three games that Rush played significant snaps for Baltimore last season, his running back corps topped 170 total yards twice (the other game was against the Texans). Regardless of who would have been under center for the Falcons, the team needs to rely on Robinson to move the chains. Last season, Bijan topped 100 total yards and/or scored in all but four contests. This week he will do both.
Derrick Henry ($6,700 DK, $8,300 FD), Ravens (@ IND) Henry is the best pivot play from Gibbs and Robinson this week. Using Henry as your RB1 eliminates the potential of chalk disappointment if injury or underperformance binks the top two options. As is tradition, fantasy analysts continue to write the obituary for Henry's career before he actually hangs up the cleats. All he did last season was finish second in rushing yards and finish fourth in total TDs among the position. Indy was actually pretty solid against the run last season, but it also only faced five RB1s in the same class as Henry. The ceiling is lower than Bijan and Gibbs, but his floor remains 100-1.
De'Von Achane ($7,000 DK, $8,500 FD), Dolphins (@ LV) Someone has to provide the offense for the Dolphins. Playing on a considerably better team last year, Achane scored and/or topped 100 total yards in 14 out of 16 contests. Now he must take on even more of the offense. Last season, Vegas allowed an average of 127 total yards and one total score per game to opposing running backs. Plus, only seven teams gave up more total points to the opposition. Few owners will be looking at this game for playable DFS options, but I'd seriously consider using Achane paired with one of the Raiders' receivers.
Sleepers
Tony Pollard ($5,600 DK, $6,000 FD), Titans (vs. NYJ) In 2025, the Jets allowed an average of 144.7 total yards and 1.6 total TDs per game to opposing running backs. They can't possibly be that bad again, or can they? At this price, Pollard is a perfect RB2/FLEX play. Only one team allowed a higher opponent rushing play percentage than the Jets, so I am not even concerned about whatever role Tyjae Spears may have in the passing game.
MarShawn Lloyd ($4,800 DK, $4,900 FD), Packers (@ MIN) The one team to allow a higher opponent rushing play percentage than the Jets was the Vikings. They also allowed a league-worst 30.1 total touches per game to opposing backs. The team will give Lloyd the first opportunity to seize the Packers' backfield with Josh Jacobs (exempt list) out for the foreseeable future. His ownership will be ridiculous because of the price, but using him at FLEX makes it much easier to roster both Bijan and Gibbs.
Wide Receiver
Weekly strategy - Ja'Marr Chase (knee), Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave are the WR1 locks. DeVonta Smith is the one high-dollar pivot that I would consider. With that said, I would rather still use one of the first three and then slide Smith in at WR2. Other WR2 choices include Ladd McConkey, DJ Moore and Parker Washington. Personally, I believe Washington will be over-owned and may struggle to establish himself over the Jaguars' other weapons. For WR3, I'm targeting Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Godwin Jr., Wan'Dale Robinson and Quentin Johnston. Godwin will be my most-owned receiver if either Emeka Egbuka (toe) or Jalen McMillan (knee) is out. Jalen Coker, Devaughn Vele and Tre Tucker (my second favorite option) are excellent discount plays on lesser teams.
Fantasy four-pack
Ja'Marr Chase ($7,800 DK, $8,900 FD), Bengals (vs. TB) As mentioned above, this game has the highest implied total, so stacking the top quarterback on the slate with his top weapon is just good business. This may even present the opportunity to roll out a Voltron-stack of either quarterback, paired with Chase, Higgins and Godwin. Last season, Tampa faced nine elite-level receivers, and only two finished with fewer than 13.5 PPR points. Three topped 20 total points. Chase is a lock to hit the 20-point mark here.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500 DK, $8,600 FD), Lions (vs. NO) Only Chase garnered more targets than St. Brown last season; he averaged over 10 targets per game. The unfortunate thing is that St. Brown topped 100 receiving yards only five times and finished with under 60 receiving yards five times as well. The receptions will be here this week, making him a safer play on DK than FD, but I'm bearish on the yardage. With that said, it won't matter from a DFS standpoint, because he will score at least one TD this week barring an injury.
Chris Olave ($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD), Saints (@ DET). At more than $1k less than both Chase and St. Brown, Olave makes a great WR1 pivot. In only nine games with Tyler Shough at quarterback, Olave had five TDs. Compare that to every other quarterback to play with Olave; they combined for 14 passing TDs (over 46 additional career games). The absence of rookie WR Jordyn Tyson (hamstring/made of glass) will keep Olave's window of dominance open in this potential shootout. It will also create the opportunity for Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele to be sneaky discount plays at WR3 and TE.
DeVonta Smith ($6,600 DK, $7,500 FD), Eagles (vs. WAS) Over the last two seasons, Smith has played four games without A.J. Brown. In those games, Smith averaged eight targets, 5.8 receptions and 73 yards, but he has scored only once. He was better in the 2021-22 season, when he scored and/or topped 60 receiving yards eight times. With rookie Makai Lemon slow to establish himself on the depth chart, it seems fairly clear that Smith will beat his career averages of 4.8-62.7 per game. We should be able to trust him for 6-70-1 here, making him a solid WR1 or an elite WR2.
Sleeper
Wan'Dale Robinson ($4,800 DK, $5,300 FD), Titans (vs. NYJ) Robinson joins his former head coach (now offensive coordinator), Brian Daboll, in Tennessee after posting 92-1014-4 on 140 targets last season. Last year, only seven receivers saw more targets. After trading Sauce Gardner, 13 different wideouts reached double-digit PPR points versus the Jets. He has never been a TD threat, so this is a much stronger play on DK than FD.
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD), Cardinals (@ LAC) Michael Wilson just landed his contract extension, but I see the Cardinals doing everything in their power to reestablish Harrison as the WR1 in this offense this week. Before his Week 11 absence because of injury, Harrison had posted back-to-back double-digit target games, and he was serving as option B in the offense behind Trey McBride. Unfortunately, more injuries compounded the rest of the season. This opened the door for Wilson to go absurdly nutzoid. What many will forget, though, is that before Harrison suffered that injury, Wilson posted a total of 22-231-1 over nine games while Harrison posted a total of 34-525-4. I like both players this week (and McBride too), but Harrison is the play that will provide the best ROI.
Tight End
Weekly strategy – Trey McBride is the top option this week. Colston Loveland is considerably cheaper and makes a great pivot with multiple other Bears injured. Both Sam LaPorta and Dallas Goedert have great matchups. Either could slot in if you are looking to save a few bucks. With that said, if I'm going to size down here, I prefer Juwan Johnson and Dalton Schultz. Both should see additional work because of key injuries. You could even use one of them at FLEX if you want to play both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs at running back. If you want to take a chance on Michael Mayer filling in for Brock Bowers (knee), the price is certainly right.
Fantasy four-pack
Trey McBride ($6,800 DK, $7,600 FD), Cardinals (@ LAC) With Bowers out of the picture, McBride is once again the consensus TE1 for the league (at least to start the season). He finished last season with 311 more yards, 38 more receptions and 51 more targets than the next closest tight ends. In addition, he tied Dallas Goedert for the league lead in tight end touchdowns. The price is still cheap enough to consider him, but as always, I tend to lean frugal at this position.
Colston Loveland ($5,300 DK, $6,000 FD), Bears (@ CAR) From Week 9 onward, Loveland paced the Bears' offense in every receiving category (yards, targets, receptions and TDs). With Rome Odunze (calf) questionable, Loveland could see even greater usage. In the five games that Loveland played without Odunze last season, he finished with 27-307-3.
Sam LaPorta ($4,400 DK, $5,800 FD), Lions (vs. NO) LaPorta inherits offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who coached McBride to an NFL receptions record for a tight end last season. At nearly $2K less than McBride, LaPorta makes a great discount pivot. If I stack this game, I prefer pairing LaPorta withAmon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff, and then running it back with Chris Olave.
Dallas Goedert ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD), Eagles (vs. WAS) With both Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers behind the learning curve on offense, Goedert becomes the No. 2 pass-catching option for the Eagles. As a large-bodied target, he provides something diametrically opposite to DeVonta Smith: a red zone threat. Goedert turned his size advantage into 11 receiving scores last season, including four over his last three games.
Sleepers
Juwan Johnson ($3,700 DK, $5,400 FD), Saints (@ DET) Johnson quietly finished top-five in tight end receptions and receiving yards. Plus, in the ten games with Shough at quarterback, Johnson averaged 11.5 PPR points per game. The Lions have depth question marks in their secondary, so I expect both Johnson and Olave to feast in this game, making each a great stack with Tyler Shough or as a runback with Goff.
Dalton Schultz ($3,400 DK, $5,100 FD), Texans (vs. BUF) Schultz could end up the primary beneficiary of Jayden Higgins' season-ending knee injury. Last year, Schultz had 10 games with eight or more PPR points (and that was with Higgins around). If he can reach those numbers this week, that would put him in direct 3x range on DK.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: DFS - Fantasy Domination - Week 1
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