We are through one week of the NFL season, and it makes sense to want to take everything at face value since it’s the only true data point that we have so far about this season. While there ARE things that we can take from last week’s games, we have a lot to learn about players, teams, their tendencies and a lot more. We’re not going to overreact about every single thing that happened in Week 1, but we can take a measured approach while understanding that priors we held before the season have changed, can change and will likely change.
“The Outlook” will give you details, stats, angles, recommendations and everything else you need to know to help you make your fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team playing will be
profiled in this article. We want everybody reading this to bring home championships in your fantasy leagues! This week is the first step!
I am incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season and hope you all enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) and tag me in a post to ask me any lineup questions you have, and I will do my best to get them answered for you.
Let’s get into it for Thursday night and through the multiple blocks of this article, this Sunday/Monday full slate of games!
(All game/implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday afternoon for DET/BUF and Tuesday night for CAR/ATL, MIN/CHI and PHI/TEN)
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills — 8:15 PM ET
- Favorite: Bills -4.5
- Game Total: 53.5
- Implied Point Total: Bills 29, Lions 24.5
Lions Fantasy Notes
QB Jared Goff
Goff was 26-of-39 for 206 yards and two touchdowns, leading an extremely condensed Lions offense to a win over the New Orleans Saints in overtime in Week 1. How condensed? Only three wide receivers and eight offensive players even took a snap. If you had just looked at the box score after the fact, you would never know that it was a 7-0 score at halftime. Even though the Lions ended up scoring 31 points, it was really Jahmyr Gibbs that did most of the damage rather than Goff, who still threw two touchdowns to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff was QB17 on the week, but the upcoming Bills defense did just allow 31 points to the Houston Texans, so maybe some upside here on Thursday night?
Fantasy Advice: For Thursday night against the Bills, Goff is definitely in play as a low-end QB1 for Buffalo’s first game at the new Highmark Stadium.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Somehow, 186 total yards and two touchdowns wasn’t good enough for overall RB1 or RB2 on the week! Nonetheless, a Detroit backfield minus David Montgomery rode Gibbs to the tune of 34 touches. It’s pretty clear who the Lions want to be the engine of their offense. Backup Sione Vaki is the handcuff here, as he touched the ball three times.
Fantasy Advice: You don’t need me to tell you to start Gibbs. He’s in your lineup if he’s active.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown continued his assault on opposing defenses in Week 1, where he logged 14 targets, catching 10 of them for 67 yards. In typical ARSB style, they were at a 5.2-yard aDOT, but who are we to complain? St. Brown is one of the most bankable receivers in fantasy, and no opponent changes that.
Fantasy Advice: I don’t think you don’t need me to tell you to start St. Brown in Week 2. Lock him in this week against the Bills.
WR Jameson Williams
Williams was plenty involved and ran an equal 95% route participation with St. Brown in Week 1. He was their downfield threat, posting a 14.2-yard aDOT, but only caught 4-of-9 targets for 45 yards and JUST missed a touchdown as well early in Week 1, as he was down at the 1-yard line before Gibbs plunged in for the score. No other Detroit pass-catcher had more than a 5.7-yard aDOT (LaPorta), so the downfield role was clearly his, and he didn’t have to fight any other ancillary pass-catchers for those particular targets given how concentrated the personnel is for the Lions. The Bills gave up four completions of 20+ yards in their win against the Houston Texans in Week 1, so perhaps that could be the avenue to exploit the Bills in Week 2?
Fantasy Advice: Williams is a solid low-end WR2. He might seem like your classic boom-or-bust profile. HOWEVER, there’s much more volume in store for Williams, given how condensed the target tree is in Detroit.
TE Sam LaPorta
It wasn’t a super interesting day for LaPorta on the stat sheet, but as we’ve been harping on, it’s a condensed offense. Considering only 2-of-36 targets went to a player that wasn’t St. Brown, Williams, Gibbs or LaPorta, that’s something you love to see. Better days are ahead for LaPorta in this offense.
Fantasy Advice: LaPorta is still a firm low-end TE1 given the offense he’s in and his placement within it.
Bills Fantasy Notes
QB Josh Allen
Allen was awesome in Week 1 against what we all thought was a brutal matchup in the Houston Texans’ defense. Two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and 334 yards passing; Allen could do no wrong. Sporting the best air yards/att. (12.8 yards) of all quarterbacks in Week 1, he’s using the entire field. There’s no scenario where you’re not starting anybody else over Allen in a given week.
Fantasy Advice: To repeat the last sentence from above: There’s no scenario where you’re not starting anybody else over Allen in a given week.
RB James Cook III
In Week 1, the Bills were a little less pass-curious than I think anybody, with that point being driven home more emphatically in a game where both the Bills and Texans scored 30+ points apiece. With two touchdowns on the ground by Allen and a lot of the work through the air later in the game, Cook was present and accounted for but didn’t factor too much into the outcome in the third and fourth quarters — outside of catching a couple of his passes then. Cook will have his weeks, but it just wasn’t in the cards for Buffalo’s season opener.
Fantasy Advice: Keep Cook locked in as your fantasy RB1, as touchdown variance should shift into Cook’s favor sooner rather than later.
WR DJ Moore
Is it time for me to ALREADY get my face pushed into the dirt for Moore? Moore led the Bills in targets (seven) and put up a 5-100-1 line on 81% route participation. His touchdown catch probably should have been stopped by somebody, with Texans S Reed Blankenship diving to tip it but ultimately missing and letting Moore go untouched for the final 20 yards to the end zone. That said, Moore took a little more than a quarter of Allen’s targets, which is a nice baseline for fantasy production. I’m still slightly skeptical, though, if Buffalo will be passing like this going forward. For Moore’s fantasy managers, at least for one week, it was a great sign.
Fantasy Advice: Against the Lions in Week 2, Moore is a solid, low-end WR2, where you’re hoping his Week 1 establishes a floor of how much Allen is willing to look his way.
WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir put up a 4-50-0 line on five targets but saw a couple of downfield looks in addition to his typical line-of-scrimmage targets that have become his signature. He had a target inside the 2 that could have been an easy touchdown but was tipped away and then had another red-zone target in the middle of the fourth quarter as well. Despite running just 63% routes in Week 1, Shakir was schemed up and is the CLEAR WR2 here behind Moore, but one that has solid opportunity each week.
Fantasy Advice: More of a flex play against the Lions in Week 2, but Shakir tends to punch up a bit with his fantasy value, especially in PPR formats.
TE Dalton Kincaid
I am VERY interested in Kincaid moving forward if this is how he’s going to be utilized. Sure, he was a 69% route participation (which would have been a season-high last season) against the Texans in Week 1, but he made his looks count with a 5-130 line on six targets. Kincaid was 50% in the slot and 29% out wide in his alignments in Week 1, so getting Kincaid in space and letting him navigate is what we’ve wanted from him for YEARS.
Considering Kincaid ran the second-most routes on the team after Moore, I’m hoping this utilization sticks because this is how you get to be a top fantasy tight end. We know the offense can support a clear second target and the Bills are going to score a LOT. Kincaid is one of my favorite storylines to follow through the season for Week 1. If you like having fun, Kincaid is most definitely FUN.
Fantasy Advice: The Lions allowed 14 targets, seven receptions, 87 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 to Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant last week. With that in mind, we’re locking in Kincaid as a mid-range TE1 and I don’t think that is overdoing it.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook - Week 2 (DET-BUF, MIN-CHI, CAR-ATL, PHI-TEN)
