Happy Week 1! Since the final shred of confetti landed on the ground at the Super Bowl at Levi's Stadium in early February, we have been looking forward to this week, when games will be played that count in the standings! And in a flash, we breezed through the offseason, and now we are here on the precipice of Week 1!
"The Outlook" will give you details, stats, angles, recommendations and everything else you need to know to help you make your fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team playing will be profiled in this article. We want everybody reading this to bring home championships in your fantasy leagues! This week is the first step!
I am incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season and hope
you all enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social) and tag me in a post to ask me any lineup questions you have, and I will do my best to get them answered for you.
Let"s get into it for the Wednesday and Thursday night games as the appetizer for the main course: this Sunday's full slate of games!
(All game/implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday afternoon)
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks - Wednesday 8:20 PM ET
- Favorite: Seattle -3.5
- Game Total: 44.5
- Implied Point Total: Seattle 24, New England 20.5
Injury Notes
New England Patriots
- RB TreVeyon Henderson (OUT; ankle) ‐ DNP | DNP | DNP
Seattle Seahawks
- RB Zach Charbonnet (PUP; knee ‐ will miss first four games)
- WR Tory Horton (questionable; hamstring) ‐ LIMITED | LIMITED | LIMITED
- RB Emanuel Wilson (no status; hamstring) ‐ FULL | FULL | FULL
- TE AJ Barner (no status; oblique) ‐ FULL | FULL | FULL
Patriots Fantasy Notes
QB Drake Maye
Our adjusted EPA per play king, Maye, the runner-up to NFL MVP, is being drafted as QB2 or QB3, depending on how you feel about Lamar Jackson. Finishing as fantasy's QB3 last season in points per game, Maye gets new receiving weapons added to his arsenal. Gone is Stefon Diggs, the top target for the Patriots last season. In his place are A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. I would say that is a clear win from a total offensive environment perspective.
It is certainly plausible and even expected that the Patriots pass just a little bit more with Brown and Doubs in the fold for 2026, as New England had the 10th-fewest team pass attempts last season. Maye was somebody I was not drafting as much, but only because of the price as one of the top quarterbacks off the board. Adding some more pass attempts and then accounting for variance in game scripts with a first-place schedule will assuredly mean that, with good health, Maye can meet or exceed his 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and 450 rushing yards.
Fantasy Advice: Even against these Seahawks, you drafted Maye to be a locked-in starter. He should be started if you roster him, even if his production is less than what you would expect from the early-round quarterback selection in fantasy drafts.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
For the Patriots, the biggest news concerning the running backs (and the team, frankly) is the availability of TreVeyon Henderson, who has been sidelined since August 24 with his ankle injury. Henderson was ruled out on Tuesday, so this results in Stevenson seeing a huge workload for New England, with newly added Corey Kiner and perhaps a practice squad elevation for one of Lan Larison or Hassan Haskins.
This backfield has trended toward a heavy Stevenson focus since Week 18 last season and into the playoffs:
Snaps in W18 and in each playoff game:
- Stevenson: 28, 40, 40, 60, 45
- Henderson: 24, 26, 25, 4, 31
Henderson's injury feels like a kind of reset on some of the progress he has made in making the Patriots' backfield more of an even split. Could Henderson make up that progress in time? Absolutely.
Fantasy Advice: For Week 1, Stevenson is a volume-dependent low-end RB2 against a Seattle defense that was fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
WR A.J. Brown
For Brown, it is a big step up in terms of passing quarterbacks from Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia to Drake Maye. With Brown being one of the most efficient wide receivers of this decade so far, it is hard to think he will be anything but the top pass-catcher in New England.
Brown has topped 23% TPRR in each of the last FIVE seasons, four of them in Philadelphia and the 2021 season being his final one in Tennessee before being traded. In terms of the raw numbers, Brown topped out at 1,003 yards and 78 receptions on 120 targets, and that target number from last year feels like a basement floor for him this season.
Brown's production ramped up in the second half of last season, with a WR4 pace in fantasy points per game from Week 11 up to the fantasy football championship week in Week 17.
Fantasy Advice: With Brown, you have to temper expectations this week, as he is likely to see some Devon Witherspoon in coverage. If the Seahawks don't have Nick Emmanwori suiting up, it is possible to expect Witherspoon in the slot. In that event, Brown would avoid him a bit more and work against some of the other Seahawks defensive backs. While Brown was drafted as a back-end WR1, I would be expecting more WR2-level production from him this week.
WR Romeo Doubs
With Maye at quarterback, it is not just Brown that gets to benefit; Doubs will as well after arriving from Green Bay in free agency. Like Brown, Doubs' production was a bit at the mercy of a passing attack in Green Bay that not only was low in team pass attempts (489 ‐ sixth-fewest in the NFL) but was also unconcentrated, with so many different pass-catchers featured in the offense.
The hope this season is that Doubs can step up his production with some volume and then take advantage of the defensive attention given to Brown. Doubs' first 100-target season as a pro may come this season working alongside Brown and with Maye.
Fantasy Advice: Will Doubs be more of a slot player this season? It remains to be seen, because the Patriots are swimming in prototypical X receivers with Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams. It will be interesting to see where he aligns, as he has been a mostly outside receiver in his four seasons in Green Bay with 80%+ wide rates in each season. For fantasy, he is a low-end WR3 or flex play against the Seahawks. However, you likely drafted multiple wide receivers before him, so it ultimately depends on who else you roster ahead of him.
TE Hunter Henry
Henry is no longer the locked-in (or safe) fantasy tight end in 2026, but his usefulness is more sporadic and tied to any further offensive improvement and bump in pass attempts. Maye's near-MVP season led to Henry finishing as fantasy's TE9 with a 60-768-7 stat line last season. This season, Henry is likely the third target in the offense at best, and his production is likely to be more in danger due to other players taking from his share of the target pie, like DeMario Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams and potentially rookie Eli Raridon.
Fantasy Advice: Henry's fantasy value is tied to touchdown scoring this season, more than any other recent season. He is a good NFL tight end, but fantasy drafters were very hesitant to take him even in the top 20 tight ends, as the writing is clearly on the wall with the Patriots drafting Raridon and bringing in Brown and Doubs at receiver.
Other Pass-Catchers
The Patriots are a candidate to bump up their 11 personnel usage in 2026 from the ninth-lowest utilization in the NFL last season. They typically bring in some rotational pieces like Hollins, Williams and Douglas in the passing game to change up looks and personnel, as they have a very deep group, even after trading Kayshon Boutte to Houston. Still, these Patriots rotational receivers are not fantasy relevant unless an injury strikes, or we see some unexpected usage of these players in Week 1.
Seahawks Fantasy Notes
QB Sam Darnold
Remember when we told ourselves that Darnold could not repeat his 2024, when he threw 35 touchdowns and 4,319 passing yards for the Minnesota Vikings? Well, the dude went out and won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks last season. That, my friends, is called "rubbing our noses in it."
While real-life Sam is riding high off the Super Bowl win and some nice screen time on Hard Knocks, fantasy Sam is a bit underrated as a passer. The Seahawks had the lowest raw pass rate last season at just 52.2% and the third-lowest PROE (-6.8%) along with the fourth-fewest team pass attempts (481). But you're pretty good when you have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, right? Who isn't!
Darnold was fantasy's QB13 in 2025, with 25 touchdowns and 4,048 passing yards, but he will have to contend with a first-place schedule and not having Klint Kubiak calling the plays for the Seahawks. Those are two sizable losses, but underrated is losing Kenneth Walker III, as the Super Bowl MVP is now in Kansas City.
Fantasy Advice: With mostly the same cast and characters in the passing game in 2026, Darnold is more of a QB2 fantasy option against New England. The Patriots will test Darnold on the perimeter with Christian Gonzalez at cornerback for the Pats.
RBs Jadarian Price & George Holani
With Charbonnet opening the season on the PUP list, that means he will miss at least the first four weeks of the season as he suffered a torn ACL in the Seattle's Divisional Round game against the San Francisco 49ers.
That means the backfield is going to look a bit different with not just Charbonnet's injury, but Walker III's departure to Kansas City in free agency.
While the Seahawks had Holani in their back pocket over the last couple of seasons, Seattle drafted Price at the end of the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft to be their answer to the running back room this season and beyond.
Price did not play a snap in the preseason, but he has some limitations to his game in pass protection and receiving ability that will necessitate Holani being on the field quite a bit in tandem with Price. Perhaps former Packer Emanuel Wilson will also factor into the backfield? We will see how it shakes up. Price was by far the most aggressive draft-day price in fantasy drafts thanks to Price's real-life first-round draft capital. But I certainly would not be shocked if Holani outsnaps Price in this game against the Patriots.
Fantasy Advice: I am treating Price like a low-end flex for this game, as it seems plausible that Week 1 will be Price's lowest snap share until he refines some of his skills to keep him on the field. The Patriots were sixth in fantasy points allowed to running backs last season, so it is going to be tough sledding here in Week 1 for a limited rookie back and a pass-pro back with receiving skills. Holani has some use in DFS, but I cannot trust him to put up a usable number of fantasy points to put him in my flex spot in managed fantasy leagues.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
In a word? Sublime. That was Smith-Njigba last season, as he was the alpha, the omega, and every other Greek letter in between for the Seahawks last season. Most of the offensive game plan revolved around getting JSN in space, and it worked. Defenses knew it was coming. They STILL couldn't stop him, to the tune of 119 receptions, 1,793 yards, 10 touchdowns, NFL Offensive Player of the Year and a Super Bowl. Not bad.
This season, some are calling for regression to the mean, and it is a somewhat fair reaction after seeing what JSN did last season. Even if he comes back down to earth a little bit, he is still a top-five fantasy wide receiver. Smith-Njigba put up one of the all-time seasons for efficiency, with the fourth-highest YPRR (3.62) since routes run were recorded starting in 2006. He is unreal, but he will match up in Week 1 with Christian Gonzalez, who helped to bottle up JSN in the Super Bowl despite some missed opportunities, ending up with just four receptions for 27 yards on 10 targets when the confetti rained down for the Seahawks.
Fantasy Advice: Yes, the Patriots are a great opponent. Yes, you drafted Smith-Njigba in the first round. Also, yes, you should be starting him no matter the matchup. Like this one. Start JSN.
WR Rashid Shaheed
For Shaheed, his mid-season trade to Seattle was met with fanfare in the fantasy community, as an exciting wide receiver who had been solidly productive (66 targets, 44-499-2 in eight games with New Orleans) was being added to Smith-Njigba to form a solid tandem. Unfortunately, Shaheed could not get off the ground, as he earned just 2.6 targets per game and 5.8 fantasy points per game. He was nowhere near fantasy relevant.
Now, with a full offseason, Shaheed should have much more of a role in the Seahawks' offense. To what degree, we will find out in Week 1, as Cooper Kupp is still in this offense and will certainly get plenty of time on the field.
Fantasy Advice: Shaheed would only be a low-end DFS punt wide receiver play against New England, and he is not recommended in all but the deepest of leagues for Week 1 until we find out what his role is going to be and how much we can expect him on the field.
TE AJ Barner
JSN's dominance in the targets, receptions and virtually every other pass-catching stat really made AJ Barner's 52 receptions stand out, because they were the highest on the team after that. Barner finished as fantasy's TE14 last season, and he did that with just two games of five or more targets. He was able to fend off rookie Elijah Arroyo last season and turn in a solid season. All in all, however, Barner is more of a compiler than a player we can expect to deliver a spike week. He also only had six weeks of 70%+ routes per dropback as well, as he was still in a rotation with Arroyo and Eric Saubert. This season looks to be more of the same for Barner, although it is possible the rotation gets even more rotational with Arroyo and Saubert both healthy from the jump.
Fantasy Advice: Consider Barner a touchdown-dependent TE2 for fantasy against the Patriots and a possible leverage option in NE/SEA DFS contests.
Other Pass-Catchers
It is possible we will see a little more Elijah Arroyo mixing in with Barner, which would at the very least put him more on the radar as somebody who could catch fire and take more and more routes/snaps as the season progresses.
Cooper Kupp is mildly intriguing in deep leagues, as he has some route-based upside. As we saw last season, his heyday with the LA Rams seems pretty far away at this point in 2026. But teams are going to have to put incredible defensive attention on Smith-Njigba, so Kupp could be a factor. Still, he is more just waiver-wire fodder at this point in his career.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook
