Welcome to Week 4! We have three full weeks of game data and now we can start to really dial in what teams are doing with their players on each of the 32 NFL teams. It was much more difficult with one and two games to really get a sense of the intent and the distribution of touches for players. Now that we’re really diving into how teams are using these players, it makes it incredibly exciting to nail down the values going forward. Adding some more rookies into the mix like we got this past week makes things even MORE exciting.
We’ve compiled the groupings of games here to make it easier to find the games you want:
- Block 1: PIT-CLE (TNF), IND-WAS, NE-BUF, NYJ-CHI
- Block 2: JAC-CIN, ARI-NYG, LAR-PHI, GB-TB
- Block 3: TEN-BAL, DAL-HOU, MIA-MIN, KC-LV
- Block 4: DEN-SF, LAC-SEA, DET-CAR (SNF), ATL-NO (MNF)
“The Outlook” will give you details, stats, angles, recommendations and everything else you need to know to help you make your fantasy
football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team playing will be profiled in this article. We want everybody reading this to bring home championships in your fantasy leagues!
I’m incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season and hope you all enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social), tag me in a post to ask me any lineup questions you have and I’ll do my best to get them answered for you.
Let’s get into it!
All game/implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday evening for PIT-CLE, IND-WAS, NE-BUF, NYJ-CHI.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (TNF)
- Favorite: Steelers -2.5
- Game Total: 38.5
- Implied Point Total: Steelers 20.5, Browns 18
Steelers Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
RB Jaylen Warren
With Pittsburgh minus Rico Dowdle (toe), Warren was a one-man wrecking crew against the Bengals in Week 3. Warren handled 90.3% of snaps and 81% of routes en route to 176 total yards and 20.6 fantasy points. It could have been considerably more, as 98 total yards were wiped out by holding penalties, including an 87-yard run on a DUBIOUS (AND I DO MEAN DUBIOUS) “holding penalty” in the fourth quarter. Warren was +57 in rush yards over expected, second in the NFL among 39 qualifying running backs, only behind Bijan Robinson.
After two solid defensive efforts by the Bengals in the last two weeks, this game was a return to form (derogatory) for Cincinnati, which Warren was more than willing and happy to take advantage of. In a game where no Steeler had more than three receptions and the passing game as a whole was very unconsolidated, the running game was anything but.
Fantasy Advice: Warren could have the backfield to himself again in a short week against the Browns, where he’d be an upper-echelon RB2 with just two non-Warren touches in the backfield in Week 3.
WR DK Metcalf
It was a not-so-great day on the volume end for the Steelers’ passing game, but Metcalf was certainly present and accounted for, with 100% route participation. His third-quarter touchdown saved a pedestrian 3-31 day on five targets. With Warren leading the charge on the afternoon, the passing game wasn’t as necessary and won’t be in most instances, despite Metcalf being the top target here. Metcalf has caught less than half of his targets (11-of-23) on the season, so his 2026 season is not starting great.
Fantasy Advice: With a matchup against Browns cornerback Denzel Ward looming on Thursday Night Football, consider Metcalf a low-end WR3 with some volatility given how spread out targets are in Pittsburgh and a past-his-prime (as nice as I can be) Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
WR Michael Pittman Jr.
Coming back from his foot injury, Pittman is in a tough spot in the present and looking forward. The passing game hasn’t supported even one player in terms of volume and production. No Steeler has more than four receptions per game, just to make this clear. Roman Wilson has been earning targets at a better clip than any other pass-catcher in the offense and yet we’re not recommending him as even a rosterable player. What does that tell you about these receivers?
Fantasy Advice: Pittman is on the cusp of being droppable, which seems wild on the surface, but we’re not playing 2020-2025 fantasy football in 2026. If you have him, he can’t be in fantasy lineups unless something drastically changes in this Pittsburgh passing game.
TE Pat Freiermuth
All of the things I said about the Pittsburgh passing game when talking about Metcalf and Pittman are mostly directed at the wide receivers, though some of those points do fall to the tight ends. Freiermuth is not only struggling to stay relevant in fantasy football but also in his own offense.
The Rodgers “sphere of influence” is taking its toll on these Steelers pass-catchers overall and for Freiermuth himself, his routes have dropped from 72% in Week 1 to 61% and 62% in the previous two weeks. Darnell Washington got a sizable bump in snaps and routes in Week 3, going from 28% routes per dropback to 57%. That could be correlated to Freiermuth’s drop, so we’ll have to see there. But if both tight ends are going to be a bit more interchangeable than Freiermuth having a standalone role, you can count my rostership of Freiermuth done. The Steelers run two more tight ends in the same formation at a 28% clip, which is 22nd in the NFL through three weeks, so it seems like it’s a “one or the other” situation rather than both playing at the same time. That’s not good!
Fantasy Advice: Against the Browns, Freiermuth is a streaming option where you’re hoping for a handful of catches and a touchdown rather than projectable target volume.
Browns Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
RB Quinshon Judkins
It was a little better in Week 3 for Quinshon Judkins as he was able to get a little more utilization with 20 total touches (60% of the team’s rushing att.) and 79 total yards, but he still hasn’t scored a touchdown through three weeks. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Judkins has a 26.2% success rate (runs resulting in positive EPA) this season, the third-lowest percentage among running backs with at least 30 carries. He’s also averaging 0.5 yards before contact (ninth-fewest) and 84.1% of his rushing yards have come after being contacted (10th most). Judkins’ line isn’t exactly doing him many favors and while Cleveland’s offense as a whole has been slightly above most expectations, the run game isn’t seeing many benefits of that, especially Judkins.
Fantasy Advice: Even against a below-average Steelers team that has given up more than 100 rushing yards per game, Judkins is merely a low-end fantasy RB2.
Browns WRs
While both KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston are promising players, both players are at the mercy of what’s a well-below-average offensive environment that can have pretty sizable swings of volatility and those swings are coming on the negative side. Concepcion hasn’t had anything close to a breakout game in terms of production. However, he ran routes on 95% of dropbacks in Week 3 – his first time over 74% this season.
In his first two weeks of the season, Boston had as good a runout as you’ll see and has made some good plays. That said, we’re still talking about five targets per game in three games and some touchdown-fueled production on a subpar 15.3% targets per route run (TPRR). Both players are still behind Harold Fannin Jr. in the pecking order for targets, but there’s plenty of time to make up ground.
Fantasy Advice: Both Concepcion and Boston should be rostered in the majority of fantasy leagues at the very least, but neither should find their way into your starting lineup quite yet.
TE Harold Fannin Jr.
After a subpar game in Week 1 and a solid one in Week 2, Fannin exploded in Week 3 against the Panthers to lead the Browns in every category, including catching both of Deshaun Watson’s touchdowns on the afternoon. Fannin caught 7-of-9 targets for 52 yards plus the two scores, none bigger than the go-ahead score with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter on an angle route from the slot and then when Watson broke the pocket, Fannin followed him laterally during the scramble to uncover himself. It was a fun play and improvisation from both Watson and Fannin.
Fantasy Advice: Fannin is the top target for this Browns team and should be a low-end TE1 for now, with the Browns punching above their weight through the season’s first few weeks.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders (London)
- Favorite: Colts -3.5
- Game Total: 47.5
- Implied Point Total: Colts 25.5, Commanders 22
Colts Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: RB Jonathan Taylor
WR Josh Downs
Hey, the Downs stuff has passed the smell test after three weeks. With a dismal Week 1 where Downs put up 2-37 on just three targets against the Ravens, Downs has come back with a vengeance against the Chiefs (7-72-0 on nine targets) and Texans (5-77-0 game on 10 targets). He now has two straight games with nine or more targets and at least 72 receiving yards. Downs was also used much deeper than he has, well, since I can remember, as he’s always been a short-area target throughout his career. In fact, of Downs’ 50 career games, his 15.4-yard aDOT in Week 3 was the fourth-highest mark he’s ever put up in a game.
Downs is doing everything we’ve wanted from him since taking a full-time role in this offense. He’s earning targets and playing more routes and snaps than he ever has.
Fantasy Advice: Against the Commanders, as clear a pass funnel as there’s been in the NFL this season, consider Downs a high-end WR3 with plenty of upside in London.
WR Keenan Allen
It’s been a pretty even share of targets for the top-three pass-catchers in Indianapolis, where Allen resides after only a month and change on the team. Allen had his best game in his short Colts career with a 6-63 game on nine targets, including a touchdown in the second quarter. The Colts have historically been an unconcentrated passing game. However, all but five of the 34 targets for Indianapolis went to Downs, Allen and Tyler Warren in Week 3.
Fantasy Advice: As a veteran who is still solidly productive, you can do much worse than Allen in your flex spot in a pass-funnel spot against the Commanders in Week 4.
TE Tyler Warren
Since we mentioned the concentration of targets for the Colts, last but not least is Warren, who was the most efficient of the group with his team-leading 10 targets on the afternoon. He caught 9-of-10 passes from Daniel Jones for 55 yards, mostly underneath targets with the occasional downfield target. His aDOT in Week 3 was a minuscule 2.5 yards and sits at just 1.9 yards through three games. The volume for Warren is perfectly fine and there’s some YAC to go with it, but there’s certainly room to grow for Warren to be even more impactful, even at a 5.0-to-6.0-yard aDOT rather than where he’s at now.
Fantasy Advice: Warren remains a locked-in TE1 option in the Colts’ trek to London against the Commanders in Week 4.
Commanders Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
Commanders RBs
The backfield for Washington is going to be productive at times. Against Seattle, however, both Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White were at just a 2.6 yards per carry (YPC) mark against a tough Seahawks front. JCM got the bulk of the carries (19) as they tried to get him going, but he was well under even 2.0 YPC. The final count was 20 touches for Croskey-Merritt to just nine for White in Week 3 and at the very least, White scored an early receiving touchdown for anybody who had to start him. It’s rough out here in Commanderland; neither player is really an attractive start.
Fantasy Advice: I’m hands off this entire backfield, as there is virtually no redeeming quality to pin your hopes on as the Commanders’ “square-peg, round-hole” touches to JCM. Both White and Croskey-Merritt are low-end flex plays with a lean to White.
WR Terry McLaurin
After two disappointing weeks, all McLaurin needed was his lord and savior, Marcus Mariota.
No, really.
McLaurin put up a 6-77-1 line on a team-leading nine targets, which is honestly amazing considering all 11 players who played a snap also earned at least one target. With Mariota, McLaurin has historically been much better with him than Jayden Daniels. That includes higher marks in receiving yards per game (70.5), yards per target (10.9 yards), first-read target rate (28.6%), YPRR (3.11), TPRR (29%) and fantasy points per game at 15.2. I think we’re back to cooking a bit with McLaurin, even if Daniels somehow returns in Week 4 as he’s making the trip to London.
Fantasy Advice: Continue starting McLaurin as always; he’s a solid WR3 in most weeks as Washington’s top receiving target.
WR Stefon Diggs
Even though the passing game probably isn’t the best in terms of production, you’re always going to get whatever quarterback is in there to throw to Stefon Diggs. He’s earned a target on 28.4% of routes. Week 3 was no different, with a seven-target game and a 4-35-0 line. As the no-doubt, slam-dunk second target for the Commanders, he’s in starting consideration every week. He even ran routes on a season-high 77% of dropbacks!
Fantasy Advice: I am happy to slot Diggs into my flex as a strong target-earner despite not running a full route share. He’s good enough to earn a ton of targets on lesser routes. You can’t say that about a lot of players, but you can with Diggs.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
- Favorite: Bills -7
- Game Total: 48.5
- Implied Point Total: Bills 27.75, Patriots 20.75
Patriots Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
QB Drake Maye
Three turnovers for Maye told a lot of the story in this game and not having A.J. Brown as the top target probably doesn’t help. This offense feels pretty lifeless and broken right now. Maye is averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game currently; that’s QB31, folks. He also has six interceptions and a lost fumble to just one touchdown pass. It has not been good. Bad even. Even if you drafted him, I think you’re at the point where you’ve hopefully secured another option to at least have a decision to make whether to start him this week. Things can’t get much worse for Maye, but they aren’t getting better, either.
Fantasy Advice: Against division rival Buffalo in Week 4, I think you have to bench Maye until he gets his issues sorted out.
Patriots RBs
Touches were split pretty evenly here between Rhamondre Stevenson (10) and TreVeyon Henderson (9), but the Jaguars leapt out in front 14-3 toward halftime. Then, after a Maye interception, Jacksonville scored twice within 18 seconds to add two more touchdowns. That was all she wrote, as backup quarterback Tommy DeVito came in to throw a few passes and Corey Kiner ran the clock out with six carries, ending Stevenson and Henderson’s afternoon. So, to answer the question from last week: no, it still doesn’t matter if Stevenson fumbles. He will still have his role regardless of his turnovers.
Fantasy Advice: Both backs are borderline startable in fantasy, but with Maye having his issues, I’m just not sure if the environment is good enough to make either back a weekly starter. Stevenson is a mid-range flex with some volume-based utility, while Henderson is a low-end flex with less work than Stevenson but clear home-run ability.
Patriots WRs
It’s been a bit of a rough start for Romeo Doubs as a Patriot, starting with that three-target, zero-catch game in Seattle to begin the season and a trio of catches in his last two games. Doubs is holding steady at 75% routes per dropback on the season, but he’s not standing out at all. Leading everything for New England is Mack Hollins, who paced the Patriots in Week 3 in targets (eight), receptions (six) and yards (87) on an equal 75% routes per dropback. Maye and the Patriots were trying to get anything going downfield, as the top-four receivers in routes (Doubs, Hollins, Demario Douglas and Kyle Williams) combined for 325 air yards in this game.
Fantasy Advice: I would hold Doubs for a little longer, but I wouldn’t be opposed to picking up Hollins and using him as a low-end flex if you need the receiver production in your fantasy lineup.
Bills Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook III, TE Dalton Kincaid
WR DJ Moore
After an AC joint injury that kept Moore out of the second half of the team’s first-ever game in Highmark Stadium against the Lions in Week 2, Moore returned in Week 3 and it’s like he never left. Moore led all categories for the Bills with a 6-67-0 line on a team-leading nine targets. There should have been a touchdown to go with that production, but Allen sailed a pass over Moore in the end zone. Returning to 74% routes per dropback in Week 3, Moore should see a bit of an uptick into the 80%+ range of routes as he gets healthier. Still, it was good to see Moore get back in place as the Bills’ top target earner.
Fantasy Advice: Moore may see Christian Gonzalez lined up in front of him in Week 4, but Moore is a solid high-end WR3 with upside despite the tougher individual matchup.
WR Khalil Shakir
Most of the other Buffalo targets were ice cold against the Chargers. After Moore, only two players caught more than one ball. Shakir was not one of them, as he caught just 1-of-3 targets for six yards on 68% of routes per dropback. In a game where Allen ran in for two scores (for the third consecutive game!) and Cook dusted the Chargers for 154 yards and a touchdown, the passing game outside of Moore was an afterthought.
Fantasy Advice: There will be better passing scripts for the Bills this season, but a game like Week 3 shows the volatility of an unconcentrated offense, especially when a run game is getting as hot as it did against the Chargers. Shakir is still a low-end flex in Week 4 against the Patriots. He’s not the safest option, obviously.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
- Favorite: Bears -3.5
- Game Total: 43.5
- Implied Point Total: Bears 23.5, Jets 20
Jets Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
QB Geno Smith
It couldn’t have been a worse outcome for Smith last season in Las Vegas, as he looked to be at the end of his rope with his long-tenured career. What a difference a few months and a new locale can make, as Smith is seemingly rejuvenated with the Jets in 2026. Smith put up a QB3 performance in Week 3 against the defensively bereft Detroit Lions, who let Smith toss three touchdowns and 321 passing yards on them in the comeback effort. Peppering Garrett Wilson and Kenyon Sadiq with targets, Smith was dealing and remarkably accurate, completing all but six of his 37 pass attempts. In matchups like this, Smith is not the worst play. He’s not the best play either, to be fair.
Fantasy Advice: Smith is a worthwhile streaming quarterback against the Bears in Week 4, with the hope that he carries over the momentum he built in Week 3.
Jets RBs
With Breece Hall leaving the game early in the fourth quarter with a hip injury, Braelon Allen came in and handled the final 16 snaps of the game for the Jets. Hall didn’t have too much success on the ground, with just 32 yards on 13 carries, but neither did Allen, as he only touched the ball seven times. Six of those touches came after he entered the game for Hall. With Hall “week-to-week” with his hip injury, it’s looking like Allen might get the opportunity to be the lead back against the Bears.
Fantasy Advice: If Hall is out, consider Allen an upside RB2 against the Chicago Bears in Week 4. If Hall is back in the lineup for Gang Green, Allen is a bench hold and one of the better contingent plays for fantasy.
WR Garrett Wilson
In games where the Jets look pretty functional, which has been every game so far with a Week 1 win against the Titans and two one-score losses, you’re going to get volume with Smith and a ton of targets for Wilson. Wilson is coming off his best game of the year as New York spent most of the second half trying to get back into the game with the Lions. Wilson paced the Jets with 12 targets and a 9-96 line, with a touchdown in the fourth quarter to put the Jets in position to tie it up with a two-point conversion (which they did). This Smith-to-Wilson combo has been excellent, all things considered. It’s weird having the Jets moderately relevant for fantasy purposes without having to add a lot of caveats, but here we are!
Fantasy Advice: Wilson is a rock-solid high-end WR2 in another good matchup against a second consecutive NFC North squad on the road against Chicago.
TE Kenyon Sadiq
Mason Taylor (thumb) was sidelined for Week 3, as was Adonai Mitchell (finger), so the thought was that opportunity could open up for first-round rookie Sadiq against the Detroit Lions. Did it ever!
Sadiq ran a season-high 57% routes per dropback and eclipsed his combined Week 1 and Week 2 numbers on eight targets, which was second to only Wilson. With a 7-105 line plus an awesome diving catch for a touchdown in the second quarter, Sadiq looked every bit the part of an athletic freak at tight end. On his touchdown catch, Smith made such an insane tight-window throw UP further into the end zone so that cornerback Roger McCreary couldn’t play it and Sadiq used his length to pull it in. He was used throughout the game despite the lower route total, but as I’ve said with rookies or young players who have their coming-out party: you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.
Fantasy Advice: Sadiq mostly split with Jeremy Ruckert, who also caught a touchdown pass. That said, look for Sadiq to ramp up a little in routes in the next week or two. It’s probably not going to be an immediate thing for Sadiq to get him where we want him for fantasy, but he absolutely needs to be rostered in every league as a potential league-winning tight end on a functional Jets offense. If you want to start him, by all means do. Just know that he’s not going to exceed or even meet overall TE4 numbers each week. Imagine if he does, though?
Bears Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
Bears RBs
D’Andre Swift continues to put a gap between himself and Kyle Monangai in terms of the backfield split. In Week 3’s Monday Night Football game against the Eagles, Swift looked more like the bellcow and Monangai looked more like the spell than ever before, despite Monangai receiving 10 touches for 31 yards. Swift’s 23 touches turned into 88 yards and Swift also took 69% of snaps and 57% of routes per dropback. Looking more and more like the consistent part of the Chicago offense by the week, it’s easy to gain some confidence in Swift moving forward.
Fantasy Advice: Against the Jets in Week 4, lock Swift into your RB2 spot in your fantasy lineup. Even Monangai is a solid contingent hold in case something happens to Swift.
WR Luther Burden III
Leading the Bears in targets (11) in Week 3, Burden was the preferred target for Case Keenum with a 7-61 stat line. Keenum inundated Burden with targets and let him use his YAC ability to get further downfield. Not much has to be done by the quarterback, but it’s a lot of easy-button stuff for Burden, which has to build up his confidence going forward. We know the Bears’ offense needs a jumpstart and Burden is definitely one of the cogs that can do just that.
Fantasy Advice: You have to feel a little better about Burden after a game like this, so have a little confidence in tossing Burden in your flex for now with another good matchup against the Jets.
WR Rome Odunze
Even with Odunze playing 89% of routes per dropback over the last two weeks, it feels like he’s meandering in terms of his role in this Chicago offense. Averaging just over four targets per game and not even out-targeting Kalif Raymond, I have to be brave and say it: he’s been an afterthought. Odunze had a shot at a touchdown against the Eagles, but he juggled the ball until he got out of bounds and THEN secured it. Ending up with just a 3-44 line on six targets, it’s not an enviable spot to be in for fantasy managers, where you have a fifth-round fantasy draft pick in Odunze looking like the fourth target in an offense currently being led by backup quarterbacks right now, despite Keenum’s Monday Night Football heroics in Week 3.
Fantasy Advice: For me, Odunze is a bench option against the Jets in Week 4. He’s still plenty rosterable right now, but I’m not too confident to plug him into my lineup right now.
WR Kalif Raymond
Raymond is WR12 in fantasy football through three weeks. Just as we all predicted. Playing a souped-up Olamide Zaccheaus role from last season, Raymond put up a 6-90 line, catching all six of his targets plus a third-quarter touchdown. In fact, Raymond has caught all but ONE of his 20 targets this season. While there are so many weapons in this offense, it’s hard to buy into Raymond keeping this up, but if he does, you can ride the wave a little. Just don’t pay up for his services. He’s always been a very efficient player, going back to his days in Detroit (with head coach Ben Johnson). I’m not getting ahead of my skis with a player that could come crashing back down at a moment’s notice.
Fantasy Advice: Stick him in your flex for Week 4 against the Jets and see if he can produce. Raymond’s start to the season, however improbable, is hard to ignore entering this Week 4 game.
TE Colston Loveland
Ok, well hey. Loveland caught all four of his targets for 31 yards. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Still, Loveland surpassed his first two weeks of production this season in the first 38 seconds of Week 3 with a four-yard reception from Keenum. It seems Johnson is learning a little something about how to simplify things and make life easier for his third-string quarterback. Get players into good positions. It might have taken until the first quarter of the Bears’ third game, but hey, we got there! Hopefully getting Loveland some easy touches and letting him work in some YAC opportunities is on the menu moving forward.
Fantasy Advice: Loveland still isn’t a particularly easy start in Week 4, but he’s a fringe TE1/TE2 as it stands against a Jets’ defense that’s held Tucker Kraft and Sam LaPorta in check over the last two weeks with a combined 5-59 line on six targets.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook - Week 4 (PIT-CLE, IND-WAS, NE-BUF, NYJ-CHI)
