Hey, folks! We’re back with our second block of games for the Week 10 NFL slate, and we’re staying with the early games here as we feature the rest of them in this block!
We’ve compiled the game groupings here to make it easier to find the games you want:
- Block 1: WAS-NYG, NE-DET, KC-ATL, HOU-CLE, MIA-IND
- Block 2: JAC-TEN, MIN-GB, CAR-NO, BUF-NYJ
- Block 3: SEA-LV, LAR-ARI, SF-DAL, PIT-CIN, LAC-BAL
“The Outlook” will give you the details, stats, analysis, recommendations and everything else you need to make informed fantasy football decisions. Every fantasy-relevant player on each team will be profiled in this article. We want everyone reading this to bring home championships in their fantasy leagues!
I’m incredibly excited to bring this article to all of you this season, and I hope you enjoy the ride. If you have any questions, feel free to find me on Bluesky (@ktompkinsii.bsky.social)
or tag me in a post with any lineup questions. I’ll do my best to answer them for you.
Let’s get into it!
All game and implied point totals listed were compiled via DraftKings Sportsbook on Wednesday for JAC-TEN, MIN-GB, CAR-NO and BUF-NYJ.
Teams on bye in Week 9: Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
- Favorite: Jaguars –10.5
- Game Total: 46.5
- Implied Point Total: Jaguars 28.5, Titans 18
Jaguars Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: QB Trevor Lawrence, RB Bhayshul Tuten, WR Parker Washington
TE Brenton Strange
With the Jaguars absolutely dominating their last two games against the Colts and Ravens, it’s a legitimate question whether Jacksonville’s offense can support more than one fantasy wide receiver. For a solid stretch a few weeks ago, Strange was Lawrence’s second target, but in the last two weeks since the Week 7 bye, Strange has just four receptions for 77 yards combined.
The need to pass the ball with volume has dissipated, with an average of just 20 pass attempts over the last couple of weeks. That said, Lawrence has still been efficient, but the trickle-down effect when volume disappears hits the second and third targets harder than it hits a player like Washington. Unfortunately, that’s what we’re seeing a bit of here with Strange. The Jaguars also bolstered their interior defensive line (Jordan Davis) and defensive backfield (Jessie Bates) at the trade deadline, making them that much more formidable.
Fantasy Advice: Strange is a solid play, but how much will the Jaguars throw if they get up on a likely overmatched Titans team? You’re only starting Strange if you need a tight end to get into the end zone rather than as a pure volume play.
Titans Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
RB Tony Pollard
In Weeks 7 and 8, Pollard was the highest-scoring fantasy running back in fantasy football, averaging 32.6 fantasy points per game. Then the Titans had their bye and lost some of that momentum. Now, they get to play the Jaguars at home this week and then face them again in Jacksonville two weeks from now. The tough part is that Pollard and the Titans were in their games against the Browns and Bengals until the end, so Pollard couldn’t get game-scripted out. That could end up happening here, but Tyjae Spears still isn’t practicing after the team’s bye. As a result, some of the receiving work could trickle down to Pollard and keep him on the field long enough to accumulate a little more production.
Fantasy Advice: After the last couple of weeks before Tennessee’s bye, you’re starting Pollard for sure. We’re just hoping the Titans can stay in the game for more than a half. The Jags are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, so this isn’t the most ideal spot for Pollard.
Titans WRs
Carnell Tate’s status is up in the air for Week 10, as he did not practice Wednesday following the Week 9 bye because of his shoulder injury. (He worked off to the side with trainers on Thursday.) Ideally, Tate would be the only Titans pass-catcher you’d want to start if everyone is healthy. Outside of Tate, the other pass-catchers, such as Wan’Dale Robinson, Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike, are too volatile to put into your fantasy lineups as anything more than desperation flex options.
Fantasy Advice: Keep tabs on Tate’s status this week, but he’s a reasonable upside WR3 play if he suits up. You’re hoping for some garbage-time production if he ends up playing in Week 10.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
- Favorite: Packers –3
- Game Total: 42.5
- Implied Point Total: Packers 22.75, Vikings 19.75
Vikings Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: WR Justin Jefferson
Vikings QBs
As of this writing, the Vikings have not committed to starting Kirk Cousins against the Packers after trading for him. However, this is an important game in Green Bay that could be one of the biggest of the season, so it feels a bit far-fetched that he wouldn’t start. (Plus, Kyler Murray is still week-to-week and Carson Wentz’s woeful performance on Monday night was a big reason why the team executed the trade.) Otherwise, the Vikings would go back to either Wentz or Max Brosmer as their starter in Green Bay. I can tell you right now that Vikings fans would never forgive head coach Kevin O’Connell if he started anybody but Cousins in Week 10. While Cousins has been awesome for fantasy this season, I’m likely holding off on starting him with his limited grasp of the playbook and a road matchup against one of the hottest teams in the NFL. You don’t need me to tell you about Wentz or Brosmer, do you?
Fantasy Advice: Cousins is more of a QB2 this week if he starts. That’s still up in the air, but Wentz and Brosmer are absolutely off the table if either ends up starting against the Packers in Week 10.
Vikings RBs
Both Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason are locked into the devil’s backfield here, with no winners and only losers. Week 9 was a game in which the Bills could load the box and let their pass rush tee off on Wentz and Brosmer. With only 11 rushing attempts between Jones and Mason, neither back was relevant. Perhaps having Cousins at quarterback could change things? Well, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither is this Vikings backfield.
Fantasy Advice: I would give Cousins time to settle in before considering starting a Minnesota running back. The offense needs to give defenses something to respect in the passing game. Both Jones and Mason are desperation flex options at best in Week 10 against a stout Packers defense that is playing out of its mind right now.
TE T.J. Hockenson
Even if we consider how little time Cousins has to get acclimated to Minnesota’s offense (again), Hockenson is a tough start. He also did not practice Wednesday after suffering wrist and chest injuries during the Monday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills. As the TE9 in PPR formats, Hockenson has been surprisingly playable this season after essentially being left for dead by drafters in favor of sexier options at the position. First, we need to know whether he’s playing. You also need to consider the team context with Cousins and the possibility that he may not start against the Packers.
Fantasy Advice: There’s still information I need before determining whether Hockenson is a viable start. If Cousins starts, Hockenson is a streamable option—if he plays, that is.
Packers Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: QB Jordan Love, WR Christian Watson, WR Matthew Golden
TE Tucker Kraft
When you have one wide receiver dominating targets and utilization, it’s tough for a second player to break through. When an offense has TWO players doing that, it’s nearly impossible. Such is life for Kraft, whose importance in the offense has diminished from last season’s breakout as he cedes offensive production to Watson and Golden.
With Watson and Golden entering Week 10 as top-five fantasy wide receivers, Kraft is clearly Love’s third option in the passing game. He hasn’t been anywhere close to the locked-in fantasy starter we were hoping for. Kraft caught just one of his two targets for one yard in Week 9 as Watson and Golden obliterated the Patriots’ secondary (although he and Love just missed connecting on a potential long touchdown in the second half). While Kraft has been much more involved overall and that game is likely a blip on the radar, it’s a bit concerning to see how wide the gap is between him and the two wide receivers.
Fantasy Advice: It might be tougher sledding than usual for the Packers against a heavy-blitzing front like the Vikings’, so Kraft is a low-end TE1. He may also be a player you play based on matchups and sit if you have somebody in a better matchup or game environment.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
- Favorite: Saints –2.5
- Game Total: 48.5
- Implied Point Total: Saints 25.5, Panthers 23
Panthers Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: RB Chuba Hubbard, WR Tetairoa McMillan
QB Bryce Young
After two weeks of poor production against both of the Bays, Tampa and Green, Young should be able to push the pace against the Saints, who like to do the same. There should be ample passing volume here, and why wouldn’t Young get that opportunity? He’s reached at least 36 pass attempts in every game but one this season. Young is averse to running, with just 47 rushing yards through eight games, so his fantasy production has come almost entirely through passing volume outside of a rushing touchdown in Week 1 against the Bears. Still, this should be a good environment for Young to stretch his legs and get the ball out to his receivers.
Fantasy Advice: Indoors against the Saints? Say less. I’m starting Young this week in a pretty good matchup between two fast-paced teams.
WR Jalen Coker
After a torrid start to the season, Coker has been hot and cold since the Week 5 bye, with just one usable week featuring a late touchdown against the Packers in Week 8. Coker caught four passes for 29 yards against the Broncos. Although his production has waned, you’re still likely starting him and hoping for a return to form on a solid offense that pushes the ball at the third-highest neutral pass rate in the NFL, behind the Bengals and Rams. This week represents a good matchup for the Panthers, and let’s hope Coker won’t have to play second fiddle to McMillan.
Fantasy Advice: Coker is a consensus top-20 play among wide receivers this week, but he needs to start delivering again for fantasy managers pretty soon. Consider him a low-end WR2 with upside in a potentially great game environment.
TE Darren Waller
Normally, Waller wouldn’t be featured here, but his 8-90-1 performance on 10 targets against the Broncos certainly caught people’s attention. That opportunity and production in Week 9 were greater than what he had in his previous four games combined. Waller also matched a season high with a 67% routes-per-dropback rate. The only reason he’s here this week is that he has a chance to replicate his good fortune against another defense that struggles against tight ends: the Saints. While the target competition with McMillan and Coker is definitely a real concern, Waller might be able to scrape out a top-10 finish this week if both teams can move up and down the field and turn this into a shootout.
Fantasy Advice: Waller is a solid streaming tight end this week given the matchup, and there’s a decent chance he’s available in your league as you read this.
Saints Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: WR Chris Olave
QB Tyler Shough
We talked about how this matchup is a good one for the Panthers, but it’s also a good one for Shough and the Saints, who will host Carolina in Week 10. After three straight outings with 22-plus fantasy points to start the season, Shough has just one game with 20-plus fantasy points in his last five. He came awfully close in Week 9, however, finishing as QB8 and putting up a season-high 51 rushing yards to go along with 265 passing yards and a touchdown against the Browns. Carolina has the worst sack rate in the NFL and is also leaky against the pass, so it’s an excellent matchup for Shough and the Saints, who are getting a bit healthier as we move deeper into the second half of the season.
Fantasy Advice: With Shough set up for success against Carolina, he’s a low-end fantasy QB1 in a superb game environment. It wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up being the last game standing in the early window because both teams score 30 or more points.
Saints RBs
The Saints did open the practice window for Travis Etienne Jr. on Wednesday, so he may suit up Sunday against the Panthers. If not, it’ll be Audric Estime and Alvin Kamara in a two-way split. Estime was a top-10 fantasy running back in Week 9 against the Browns, piling up 72 rushing yards on 15 carries with a late touchdown as icing on the cake. Kamara played more snaps and ran more routes but totaled just 49 yards from scrimmage on six carries and three receptions. If Etienne isn’t activated for Week 10 against Carolina, the second-worst defense against fantasy running backs, Estime should once again have a clear path to solid RB2 production.
Fantasy Advice: Estime has more upside here than Kamara, so consider him a solid RB2 option against a struggling Panthers run defense. I don’t think Kamara is even startable here, however.
Saints WRs
After Olave, it’s really a toss-up for the second and third targets in this offense. We saw the debut of Jordyn Tyson in Week 9, and he caught all four targets for 30 yards, but he ran just 35% of the routes. There’s no doubt he’ll get ramped up in the weeks to come, but that may not happen this week as far as becoming the preferred target after Olave.
Devaughn Vele (2-17-0) isn’t going anywhere, as he still maintained a 96% route share. However, adding a rookie first-round wide receiver into the mix doesn’t exactly help Vele’s chances of remaining fantasy relevant. Tyson’s routes came at the expense of Bryce Lance, who ran a season-low 48% of routes per dropback. Lance had been running empty routes anyway, with just 22 targets and a season-long stat line of 9-78-1. Barion Brown is the speed and gadget guy with a very low route total, but he caught a single pass for 52 yards.
It’s really just a trio of players here—Olave, eventually Tyson and Vele—who will run the majority of the routes. Lance and Brown become rotational pieces that we can continue to ignore.
Fantasy Advice: Tyson is an immediate hold and stash as he gets up to NFL speed and earns more routes on the field. He has WR3 upside and potentially more in the second half. Vele, on the other hand, is on the downswing. Despite running routes, Vele’s target competition is squeezing him out a little in his slot role. I’d say you can start him as a low-end flex this week, but Tyson’s ramp-up directly affects Vele’s future fantasy contributions.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Favorite: Bills –8.5
- Game Total: 50.5
- Implied Point Total: Bills 29.5, Jets 21
Bills Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook III
Bills WRs
Welcome to the mess that is the Buffalo Bills’ wide receiver room. My name is Kevin, and I’ll be your tour guide.
DJ Moore (3-23-0, five targets in Week 9) has pretty much returned to a normal route share, but he could only muster five targets on an evening when the Bills spread the ball around to every active skill-position player on their roster with 31 pass attempts from Josh Allen. That’s bad for our little game of fantasy football, and more and more people are saying it. However, Moore is probably the best bet in terms of weekly viability for the Bills, with Khalil Shakir (4-58-0, four targets) a bit farther behind Moore but still situationally viable. After that, things get rough for such a productive offense as Buffalo’s, but that’s been the name of the game for years with the Bills’ receiving group. The answer to whether Moore was going to be more of a Stefon Diggs or somebody who blends into the rest of the pass-catchers becomes a bit clearer by the week.
Fantasy Advice: The Bills pass-catchers get the Jets, who have been respectable against receivers this season. Moore is a low-end WR3 for fantasy, while Shakir is more of a flex option this week.
Jets Fantasy Notes
Must-Start Players: None
RB Breece Hall
After missing five games with a quad injury and watching Braelon Allen have success in his stead, Hall returned to the Jets’ lineup in Week 9 and ran very well against a tough Chiefs front. Hall didn’t play anywhere near a full snap share or route share, as Allen bested him in both categories. However, Hall finished with 87 total yards (61 rushing and 26 receiving) on 18 touches, which was still a solid workload. Allen chipped in with 54 total yards on 10 touches, but Hall is certainly expected to ramp up his involvement despite his efficiency in this game. Always a good sign!
Fantasy Advice: The Bills aren’t a great defense against running backs, having allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position. Hall is a solid RB2, and Allen remains a hold as a contingent play on benches. He could have a little standalone value as the season progresses.
WR Garrett Wilson
Wilson has been limited in practice, and head coach Aaron Glenn is “very hopeful” that Wilson can play in Week 10 against the Bills. He missed Week 9’s game in Kansas City, but a return in Week 10 would give Geno Smith his top receiver back. Wilson is pacing for 89-1,097-6 this season, and the Jets’ offense has never been more attractive for fantasy managers. That said, Wilson has always been the high-end option in the passing game. He’s having another strong season on a per-route basis, with a 24.4% targets-per-route-run rate and 2.03 yards per route run. Hopefully, fantasy managers and the Jets get him back because New York will need all hands on deck to beat division-rival Buffalo at home.
Fantasy Advice: If Wilson suits up, he’s a strong WR2 against a Bills defense that allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Jets WRs
If there were ever a poster boy for the Josh Hermsmeyer “Air Yards Buy Low Model,” it’s Adonai Mitchell thanks to his Week 9 performance. With 16.6 expected fantasy points based on his opportunity (seven targets and 135 air yards), Mitchell caught exactly ZERO passes. That’s right. Seven targets, 19.3 yards per target and all he has to show for it is the home version and a year-long supply of Rice-A-Roni—not a sponsor, by the way. That said, Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. (8-58, nine targets) both ran season-high route shares per dropback without Wilson in the lineup.
With Wilson potentially returning in Week 10 against the Bills, the target pecking order gets a bit crowded. Mitchell and Cooper seem to trade off production without any floor to speak of, so it’s hard to pick one over the other in a given week unless the opponent really has a slot deficiency. In that case, you’d like to go with Cooper (although the Raiders, back in Week 8, have allowed some of the highest fantasy production to slot receivers this season, and Cooper came away with zero targets despite running 74% of the routes). So, it’s not an exact science. Or any science, for that matter. It’s really just a dart throw for anybody after Wilson.
Fantasy Advice: If Wilson plays, you’re looking at flex consideration at best for both Cooper and Mitchell, even in a great matchup. If Wilson misses Week 10, consider Cooper and Mitchell low-end WR3 plays against a porous Buffalo pass defense.
Jets TEs
In Weeks 3 and 4, when Mason Taylor missed two games, Kenyon Sadiq ran 57% and 67% of routes per dropback, respectively. Sadiq then had his coming-out party with a 7-105-1 performance on eight targets. Upon Taylor’s return, he resumed his 60-70% route share and sent Sadiq back to a part-time role. However, Sadiq has been earning more and more routes over the last month or so as Taylor’s role has diminished a little, signaling a near-even split of the tight end duties. Taylor (21) ran one more route than Sadiq (20), and Sadiq had his best game since that Week 3 eruption with a 4-49-0 stat line in Kansas City in Week 9.
It’s possible we could be seeing a second-half “changing of the guard” between Taylor and Sadiq. It’s certainly something to watch, but neither player is startable right now. Sadiq is a clear hold on rosters, and if he overtakes Taylor in snaps and routes, he could be a late-season league winner given his receiving skills and athleticism.
Fantasy Advice: Neither player is a recommended start against Buffalo in Week 10, but it’s a situation worth monitoring that could benefit those holding Sadiq moving forward.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: The Outlook - Week 10 (JAC-TEN, MIN-GB, CAR-NO, BUF-NYJ)
