As each day of the 2026 NBA offseason passes, we inch closer to the start of the 2026-27 regular season for the Boston Celtics. And as Opening Night draws nearer, the outline of the roster that will take the floor for Game 1 of 82 is starting to come into focus as well.
After Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens traded star forward Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers, it became clear that this is a critical season for the team's current contention arc, with the team being remade to maximize the rest of the team's sole superstar, Jayson Tatum. What is the ceiling, floor, and our expectation for each of the players currently under contract with Boston given this sea change in structure for the team?
To such an end, Daniel Donabedian
and Justin Quinn of the Celtics Wire took a player-by-player deep dive into the answers for these questions. So let's dive into our assessment for Luka Garza for this edition of our player projections for the campaign soon to arrive.
Luka Garza - center
Ceiling
JQ: For Garza, there is not a lot of space in the frontcourt to grow, at least in terms of minutes and role, without an unlikely failure elsewhere. But the Washington, DC native can grow his game in the space left vacant by an occasional Mitchell Robinson rest night (or, hopefully less often to nil, stretches when he's injured).
What that looks like in practice is maintaining his career-high 3-point accuracy from last season at 43.3 percent above 40 percent while improving his defensive mobility whether he is the third or second center coming off the bench.
DD: If there’s anybody who didn’t benefit from Boston’s busy offseason, it’s Garza. He’ll now have to compete with big men Neemias Queta and Mitchell Robinson for minutes (and perhaps Celtics rookie Chris Cenac Jr., depending on how he’s used). However, Garza proved his value to the C’s last season and was efficient enough on offense — especially the offensive glass — to impress head coach Joe Mazzulla.
Robinson has a spotty injury history, so perhaps Garza can serve as the go-to backup center from time to time. Moreover, if the second-year Celtic continues to shoot over 40 percent from deep, he’ll provide any 3-point shooting lineups with a unique threat from the five spot. This is where Garza owns an advantage against Queta and Robinson, who are largely 3-point adverse.
Floor
JQ: The floor is like the ceiling for Garza in that his role doesn't allow that much room for a step backward given it's almost as small as a regular rotation role gets. But if that outside shot wanes, or his mobility on defense gets worse, there is a world where the team turns to rookie big man Chris Cenac Jr. to fill those minutes.
Garza's hustle and screening count for something, and I doubt his worst-case season will see him entirely out of the rotation. But with some real pressure from below in Cenac joining the team, there is a world where the Iowa alum sees his role shrink considerably.
DD: The worst-case scenario for Garza is that his 3-point shot declines and Queta and Robinson play him out of the rotation. This wouldn’t be bad for Boston, but it would remind Garza of his days with the Minnesota Timberwolves, when he never averaged more than nine minutes per game over the course of three seasons.
Furthermore, if Garza’s defense takes a step back, that will widen the gap between him and the aforementioned centers. A down season would be poor timing, too, as the 27-year-old becomes an unrestricted free agent following the 2026-27 campaign.
Expectation
JQ: I actually expect Garza to land closer to his ceiling than his floor given the work he has put in this offseason and what we saw from him last season. I do think it very likely that 3-point shot will drop below 40 percent simply because the rate it was going in for the Celtics center last season was so much higher than his career average.
But consistency in when he chooses to deploy it coupled with incremental improvement I expect on the other end fills a need for Boston bigs that is, at least for now, the most reliable combo of outside shooting, rebounding, and screen setting to be found in the team's traditional frontcourt players.
DD: Mazzulla loves bringing up Garza’s work ethic and rebounding, so that praise makes me think the backup big man will remain in the rotation. Now, he probably won’t jump Robinson on the depth chart, yet he is capable of doing enough to lead Boston’s renowned “Stay Ready” group.
While I envision Garza’s minutes declining a little, he’s shown that he belongs in the NBA. The Celtics investing in Cenac Jr. and even young center Amari Williams could imply that they’re planning for a future without Garza, but I could see another team bringing him in next season if Boston decides to move on.
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This article originally appeared on Celtics Wire: Ceiling, floor, expectations: Luka Garza with the Boston Celtics in 2026-27
