When it became clear that the Boston Celtics were shopping Jaylen Brown around the NBA earlier this summer, his negative advanced analytics were used to explain the decision. Unfortunately, that discussion point created a divide within the fanbase, as some pointed to Brown's on-court impact and box score production en route to leading Boston to the second seed in the Eastern Conference.
Unfortunately for Brown, those negative analytic numbers have become a point of discussion once again. In a recent article for ESPN, Dean Oliver broke down the disconnect between what the box score told us about Brown and what the more advanced data tells us.
“The claims of Brown being the league’s 'best two-way player' came mostly after he had his best game of the year
against the LA Clippers and Kawhi Leonard, but few noticed Brown’s next game, where he scored 14 points on 24 field goal attempts,” Oliver wrote. “Maybe we term this a 'highlight bias' because our voters perhaps saw those highlights and loved him, ranking Brown between No. 9 and No. 23. The metrics’ average, meanwhile, was around No. 60.”
Oliver continued by detailing why metrics such as DARKO, WAR, LEBRON, and even Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) often rank Brown far lower than most fans would expect.
“The quick reasons the metrics don’t rate Brown as highly are that the Celtics played better without him, he turns the ball over a lot, and he doesn’t have great vision. The not-so-quick reasons filled plenty of podcast space over the summer.”
Brown, 29, came into the summer eligible for a two-year $140+ million contract extension. That deal would have paid him north of $70 million during his age-33 and 34 seasons. Given the disconnect between the eye test and the analytics, it's understandable why the Celtics were willing to look elsewhere. Factor in Brown's sky-high usage next to Jayson Tatum, and there's a valid case to be made for trading him.
Still, Oliver's article will undoubtedly re-ignite the discussion about the value of analytics and what it brings to the table. Unfortunately for Celtics fans, that discussion won't undo the decision to ship Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers. That deal is already done. Now, with the new season ahead, we will get to see firsthand whether those analytics are proven right or a flaw is found in how they measure impact and performance.
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This article originally appeared on Celtics Wire: Jaylen Brown's advanced analytics for the Celtics just go fresh material
