As each day of the 2026 NBA offseason passes, we inch closer to the start of the 2026-27 regular season for the Boston Celtics. And as Opening Night draws nearer, the outline of the roster that will take the floor for Game 1 of 82 is starting to come into focus as well.
After Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens traded star forward Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers, it became clear that this is a critical season for the team's current contention arc, with the team being remade to maximize the rest of the team's sole superstar, Jayson Tatum. What is the ceiling, floor, and our expectation for each of the players currently under contract with Boston given this sea change in structure for the team?
To such an end, Daniel Donabedian
and Justin Quinn of the Celtics Wire took a player-by-player deep dive into the answers for these questions. So let's dive into our assessment for Jayson Tatum for this edition of our player projections for the campaign soon to arrive.
Jayson Tatum - forward
Ceiling
JQ: The ceiling for Tatum, as the saying goes, is the roof. As in, if there is a season for the St. Louis native to win the NBA's Most Valuable Player award, it will be this one. And while this may be true in a vacuum, there will also be a lot of ifs in need of realization for such an outcome to actually go down. (And to be fair, for most MVP campaigns, this is the case.)
We'd need to see JT score north of 30 points per game while also logging close to double digits in rebounds or assists, by itself not so wild an outcome. But we'd also need to see the rest of the team (and Tatum) health and available among older players, and at least one of their several young wings become a reliable rotation contributor. And then some stumbles among the usual suspects on other squads as well.
Possible, but don't bet on it.
DD: Last, but not certainly least, in our series of expectations is Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum. The 28-year-old arguably has the highest floor of anybody on the Green Team, as he’s fresh off the longest offseason of his career and looked impressive most of the time he was on the floor last season.
The six-time All-Star wasn’t out there for long, and missed that pivotal Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers due to stiffness in his knee, but it was smart for the Celtics to have him undergo those trials and tribulations months ago rather than face them now. He’ll have the confidence necessary to lead the Celtics to start the 2026-27 campaign without fearing the unknown of how his body will react.
If Tatum can keep those health worries behind him for most of the season, he could — at best — finish top-five in MVP voting, earn another All-Star nod, and qualify for an All-NBA Team.
Floor
JQ: The floor for Tatum is not a topic I enjoy writing about given we've see the results of such a floor far too recently; namely, the bulk of last season as the Duke alum recovered from th Achilles tendon injury he suffered vs. the New York Knicks in the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs. Such injuries can recur or become complicated – and other, compensatory injures can happen as well after the way the body moves changes.
This is of course contingent on especially bad luck for Tatum and Boston both, and would easily be the biggest ding in Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens' tenure in that role. Possible, to be sure – but also fairly unlikely (at least, we hope).
DD: While Tatum appeared healthy for the majority of the 2026 NBA Playoffs, his sudden absence in Game 7 is enough to make even the most cautious fans worry over the course of an 82-game regular season. Coming back from an Achilles rupture isn’t a recovery process you complete and never think of again. It’s an ongoing commitment.
Tightness reappearing or re-injury would be dreadful for Tatum and prevent him from returning to his peak. It would also stop him from raising the floor for his teammates, which would dock the Celtics at least a dozen wins in an improved Eastern Conference.
Expectation
JQ: As with most such projections, the reality we experience will likely fall somewhere between these two extremes for Taco Jay. I expect him to get very close to the numbers he needs to be a real contender for MVP, and his supporting cast to be in range for what they'd need to do to set the narrative correctly as well.
But truth be told, the likes of Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo may, in sum, be too much to overcome, with the Celtics star perhaps cracking the top three in voting after getting near to – but not past – the bar MVP would require.
DD: Last year, Tatum didn’t just dedicate himself to physical rehabbing, he attacked it. The St. Louis native was in the gym every day and this summer gave him more time than usual to recover. With Tatum’s work ethic and a longer offseason in mind, I expect the forward to play like a star again.
Whether or not he can surpass his previous apex and reach new heights remains to be seen, especially with his Achilles to consider. However, I think Tatum could set some career-highs in terms of assists and rebounds and hopefully get his 3-point shot back on track.
I imagine he’ll make life easier for his teammates on the court and while he might not take home MVP, the superstar could get back to the level of play we’re used to seeing from him — just on a more consistent basis.
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This article originally appeared on Celtics Wire: Ceiling, floor, expectations: Jayson Tatum with the Boston Celtics in 2026-27
