The Oklahoma Sooners lost their third game of the season last week, falling 21-13 at the hands of the Kentucky Wildcats in Norman. Now sitting at 3-3 halfway through their season, the Sooners have essentially fallen out of College Football Playoff contention entirely.
In the two years of the 12-team playoff era, there have been two three-loss teams that have made the field. In 2024, Clemson made the CFP with a 10-3 record, but the Tigers only made it onto the bracket because they won the ACC title game, upsetting SMU to get the automatic bid. The two-loss Mustangs still made the CFP as an at-large team, knocking three-loss Alabama out of the field. Had SMU beaten Clemson, it's likely that the Crimson Tide would have snuck into the playoff with their
three losses. Ironically, an upset loss to the Sooners that season kept the Tide out of the field.
Last season, Alabama did make it to the CFP with three losses, as they were not punished for losing to Georgia in the SEC title game. In both cases, the three-loss participant made their league's title game, with one stealing a bid by winning, and the other not dropping after losing in the 13th game they played.
That means the Sooners would have to win out and pull off an improbable turnaround this season to even get back into the playoff conversation, and they'd most likely need to make a run to the SEC Championship Game. With the number of good teams in the SEC and the number of good teams left on OU's schedule, a run to Atlanta doesn't feel likely.
So, for most outside the program, the focus turns to whether OU will make a bowl game and, if so, which one. The Sooners have made it to a bowl game for 27 straight seasons, with the last miss coming in 1998. That was the final year of the John Blake era, and the final year before Bob Stoops was hired.
USA TODAY Sports' Erick Smith has OU playing in the Las Vegas Bowl, but matched up with Arizona out of the Big 12. For comparison, ESPN's Mark Schlabach does not have the Sooners making a bowl, while Kyle Bonagura has Oklahoma facing USC out of the Big Ten in the Las Vegas Bowl. Sports Illustrated's Bryan Fischer believes Oklahoma will extend that streak, as he released his latest bowl projections after Week 7.
In the SEC, the teams that qualify for the CFP are off the board for the remaining bowl selections. The Citrus Bowl picks the top SEC team that doesn't qualify for the playoff.
After that, there's a pool of six bowls, with no pecking order, that will consult with the SEC and school personnel to determine where teams are scheduled. They'll try to create the best possible matchups. For 2026, those bowls (in no particular order) are the Gator Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl, the Liberty Bowl, the Music City Bowl, the ReliaQuest Bowl, and the Texas Bowl.
After that, two more bowls, the Birmingham Bowl and the Gasparilla Bowl, will pick from any bowl-eligible SEC teams that still don't have a landing spot.
Fischer places the Sooners in the Liberty Bowl in his new picks, and that game will be played on January 2nd in Memphis, Tennessee. He has Oklahoma matching up with Kansas State out of the Big 12.
The SEC and the Big Ten alternate which league sends a team to the Las Vegas Bowl each season, with the SEC getting even years and the Big Ten getting odd years. The other game that follows that pattern is Duke's Mayo Bowl, with the SEC getting that bowl in odd years, and the Big Ten getting it in even years. If the Sooners were to see USC or Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl, either team would be fulfilling the legacy Pac-12 bid for the bowl, despite now playing in the Big Ten or Big 12. The 10 former Pac-12 teams are still eligible for Pac-12-affiliated bowl games, as are the teams that are currently in the Pac-12.
Of course, OU and Kansas State were conference rivals for decades in the Big Eight and Big 12. Oklahoma holds a 77-22-4 all-time advantage over the Wildcats, with 103 meetings between the two programs. Since 1999, the Sooners lead the series 14-6 over Kansas State.
The two programs have played in two Big 12 Championship games, with the Sooners winning in 2000 and the Wildcats winning in 2003. That '03 loss marks the only time the Sooners were defeated in the Big 12 title game. The two programs also split the 2012 conference title. Kansas State is also the alma mater for Oklahoma's current head coach, Brent Venables. He both played and coached for the Wildcats.
A Liberty Bowl appearance wasn't what the Sooners had in mind when the season began. However, this team will have to fight to earn a spot in any bowl game in 2026. With half the season still remaining, Oklahoma will have to get off the mat and find a way to salvage Venables' fifth year at the helm.
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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma Sooners Bowl Projections after the loss to Kentucky
