It wasn't unfathomable that the Oklahoma Sooners would start the season 2-2, considering they had to go on the road to Ann Arbor and Athens in the first four weeks of the season. What's been surprising is that the Sooners have been statistically worse than they were last season. After their 41-13 loss to Georgia, Oklahoma has a lot of questions entering the bye week.
The Sooners' offense has been one of the least efficient offenses in the SEC through four weeks. Can they get things turned around during the bye week? If so, it may take significant changes at quarterback.
Each week, the ESPN Matchup Predictor updates their win probabilities for each team in college football. After Oklahoma's loss to Georgia, how has their season changed according
to the computers?
Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.
Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma - 99%
Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0
Record: 1-0
Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma - 64.4%
Result: L, 17-10
Record: 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: W, 14-6
Record: 2-1
Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Georgia
Result: L, 41-13
Projected running record: 2-2
Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
Predicted Winner: Texas
Sooners Win Probability: 19.9% (Down from 23.7%)
Projected running record: 2-3
Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 70.1% (Down from 79%)
Projected running record: 3-3
Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Mississippi State
Sooners Win Probability: 41.5% (Down from 50.7%)
Projected running record: 3-4
Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 70% (Down from 71.5%)
Projected running record: 4-4
Nov. 7 at Florida Gators
Predicted Winner: Florida
Sooners Win Probability: 26.8% (Down from 42.7%)
Projected running record: 4-5
Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 55.5% (Up from 54.1%)
Projected running record: 5-5
Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 52.9% (Up from 52.1%)
Projected running record: 6-5
Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 56.3% (Down from 62%)
Projected running record: 7-5
Can Oklahoma make a bowl game?
The Oklahoma Sooners need to find some answers on offense if they want to salvage their season. Georgia might be the best team the Sooners face all year, but that doesn't mean they're the only good team Oklahoma will face over their final eight games. Five teams are ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll and Kentucky, who isn't ranked, has a signature win over Texas A&M.
The Sooners had high expectations for this season and now are hoping to salvage a bowl game out of a disastrous September.
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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: ESPN's game-by-game predictions for Oklahoma after Georgia loss
