The Oklahoma Sooners put themselves back in the win column Saturday afternoon, beating Mississippi State 23-15 in Starkville. It may have just been a one-score win for the Sooners, but they played a much better game than the score indicated. Especially on offense.
Though the score was much closer than it should have been, it was the third game in a row the Sooners
put something positive on tape on offense.John Mateer completed 76% of his passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns and should have been credited with another touchdown on a nice throw to Rocky Beers in the end zone after the ball was knocked loose well after the play.
It may be too little too late for Oklahoma after losses to Michigan, Georgia, and Kentucky, but if they run the table,
the Sooners could put themselves in position to make the SEC title game or the College Football Playoff. With five games to go, the Sooners have a chance to finish the season strong but will have to keep up the same level of offensive consistency.
Each week, we look at how ESPN's matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule. Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare over the remainder of the 2026 season.
Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0
Record: 1-0
Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: L, 17-10
Record: 1-1
Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: W, 14-6
Record: 2-1
Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Georgia
Result: L, 41-13
Projected running record: 2-2, 0-1 SEC
Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
Predicted Winner: Texas
Result: W, 27-24
Record: 3-2, 1-1 SEC
Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: L, 21-13
Record: 3-3, 1-2 SEC
Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Result: W, 23-15
Record: 4-3
Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 64% (Up from 63.8%)
Projected running record: 5-3
Nov. 7 at Florida Gators
Predicted Winner: Florida
Sooners Win Probability: 40.7% (Up from 38.7%)
Projected running record: 5-4
Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Predicted Winner: Ole Miss
Sooners Win Probability: 42.7% (Up from 40.6%)
Projected running record: 5-5
Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 58.9% (Up from 56.2%)
Projected running record: 6-5
Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers
Predicted Winner: Missouri
Sooners Win Probability: 49.1% (Up from 46.5%)
Projected running record: 6-6
Oklahoma gaining momentum
The Oklahoma Sooners may only be projected to finish 6-6, but they gained win-probability points in each remaining matchup, including their victory over Mississippi State. The Sooners may not have a great shot at winning out according to the ESPN Football Power Index, but they have a shot. If they win out, they'll be in the conversation for an at-large bid for the College Football Playoff, especially with their win over the Texas Longhorns.
Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X (formerly known as Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow John on X @john9williams.
This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: How does ESPN predict Oklahoma's remaining schedule after win?
