The Oklahoma Sooners had a breakthrough season in 2025, making their first College Football Playoff appearance under head coach Brent Venables. The Sooners went 10-3, but lost in the first round of the playoff to the Alabama Crimson Tide, 34-24.
Oklahoma is hoping to return to the playoff this season, but this time end with a national championship. The Sooners started the season with a dominant performance over the University of Texas at El Paso Miners. Oklahoma won 51-0, showcasing a dominant offensive and defensive performance.
After that dominant win, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) increased the Sooners' odds of making the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma entered the season with a 28% chance of making the CFP, but now has a 31.2% chance to
get in. That ranks No. 13 in college football, and No. 6 in the SEC.
The increased projection is a positive sign, but Oklahoma's playoff résumé will be determined by what happens against much tougher competition. The Sooners travel to face the Michigan Wolverines in Week 2 before beginning SEC play later in September. Oklahoma will also face the Georgia Bulldogs and the Texas Longhorns, giving Brent Venables' team several opportunities to prove it belongs among the nation's elite.
For now, the 31.2% projection reflects what Oklahoma showed in its opener: a team capable of dominating an opponent from start to finish. But the Sooners' real CFP case will be built in the weeks ahead. If they can carry the same level of execution into Michigan and then navigate the SEC schedule, that 31.2% number could quickly become much more than an early-season projection.
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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma's College Football Playoff odds go up after win over UTEP
