Oklahoma Sooners game-by-game predictions from ESPN

The Oklahoma Sooners have four games to go in the 2026 season. Four games to earn bowl eligibility and keep alive a bowl-appearance streak that began in the first year of the Bob Stoops era in 1999. At Florida, home vs. Ole Miss, home vs. Texas A&M, and at Missouri, the Sooners need to go 2-2.

Oklahoma made a move to replace offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle after another poor showing in the loss to South Carolina. At the controls of the offense is former Dallas Cowboys tight end and future Hall of Famer Jason Witten.

Witten's first test will be a road trip to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators. Florida ranks No. 103 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 78 in the nation in yards allowed per game. The Gators have allowed 27 or more

points in five of their last six games. Just last week, Florida allowed more than 200 yards rushing at 5.2 yards per carry to the Georgia Bulldogs.

The Oklahoma Sooners have to find a way to pick up a win in Gainesville to finish the season strong. Otherwise, it's going to be tough to win two of their last three to earn a bowl game appearance.

Each week, we look at how ESPN's matchup predictor projects each game on the Oklahoma Sooners' schedule. Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare over the remainder of the 2026 season.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) hands the ball off to Lloyd Avant (9) in the second half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the UTEP Miners at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Sept. 4, 2026.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 12, 2026; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive line Jayden Jackson (65) tackles Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 17-10

Record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Sep 19, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Adepoju Adebawore (34) reacts during the first quarter against the New Mexico Lobos at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: W, 14-6

Record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Sep 26, 2026; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) throws a pass against Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kip Lewis (10) during the first half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Result: L, 41-13

Projected running record: 2-2, 0-1 SEC

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Predicted Winner: Texas

Result: W, 27-24

Record: 3-2, 1-1 SEC

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Oct 17, 2026; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III (1) runs with the ball as Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Ty Bryant (14) defends during the first quarter at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 21-13

Record: 3-3, 1-2 SEC

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Oct 24, 2026; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Sategna III (1) runs after a catch for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: W, 23-15

Record: 4-3

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Result: L, 42-25

Record: 4-4

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Florida

Sooners Win Probability: 36% (Down from 340.7%)

Projected running record: 4-5

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ã Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Ole Miss

Sooners Win Probability: 29.4% (Down from 42.7%)

Projected running record: 4-6

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 48.7% (Down from 58.9%)

Projected running record: 5-6

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Missouri

Sooners Win Probability: 37.2% (Down from 49.1%)

Projected running record: 5-7

Losing Season Incoming?

The Oklahoma Sooners look like they're heading for their first regular season losing record in the Brent Venables era. Here's hoping a change at offensive coordinator can turn the tide for a unit that's one of the worst in the Power Four.

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Oklahoma Sooners game-by-game predictions from ESPN