The Oklahoma Sooners opened the 2026 season with a businesslike 51-0 win over the UTEP Miners in the Oklahoma heat on Friday night. The Sooners jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and cruised to the lopsided Week 1 win.
The first-team offense was efficient and moved the ball well throughout the game, scoring on eight straight drives with John Mateer at quarterback. The running game looked the part, especially with Lloyd Avant in the game as the Sooners racked up 170 rushing yards against the Miners.
But the competition level jumps dramatically when the Sooners go on the road to face the Michigan Wolverines in Week 2. From Sept. 12 until their SEC home opener against Kentucky on Oct. 17, the Sooners will play just one home game, Sept. 19
against New Mexico.
Each week, the ESPN Matchup Predictor updates their win probabilities for each team in college football. After Oklahoma's win over UTEP, how has their season changed according to the computers?
Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.
Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma - 99%
Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0
Projected running record: 1-0
Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 64.4% (Up from 47.8%)
Projected running record: 2-0
Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: (Down from 94.9%)
Projected running record: 3-0
Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Georgia
Sooners Win Probability: 26.1% (Up from 23%)
Projected running record: 3-1
Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)
Predicted Winner: Texas
Sooners Win Probability: 24.4% (No Change)
Projected running record: 3-2
Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 86.7% (Up from 86.3%)
Projected running record: 4-2
Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 73.4% (Down from 80.2%)
Projected running record: 5-2
Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 68.4% (Down from 75.1%)
Projected running record: 6-2
Nov. 7 at Florida Gators
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 53.1% (Down from 54.6%)
Projected running record: 7-2
Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 67.7% (Up from 62.3%)
Projected running record: 8-2
Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 50.4% (Up from 49.9%)
Projected running record: 9-2
Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 69.9% (Up from 60.3%)
Projected running record: 10-2
Sooners Make College Football Playoff?
In the preseason, the ESPN Matchup Predictor had the Oklahoma Sooners going 8-4 and missing the College Football Playoff. Since then, games against Michigan and Texas A&M (although just slightly) have flipped in Oklahoma's favor.
OU looked good in Week 1, especially on the offensive side of the ball. And that's the area that has been the biggest question mark this offseason. Now, they'll have to prove it against tougher competition, in particular in Week 2 against Michigan, but if Oklahoma can get out of Ann Arbor with a win, it sets up to be a special season for the Sooners.
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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Updated Oklahoma game-by-game projections from ESPN Matchup Predictor
