Updated picks from ESPN Matchup Predictor after Oklahoma's loss

The Oklahoma Sooners had a chance to win on the road, but the offense simply didn't show up. The Michigan Wolverines outmuscled them, and Oklahoma couldn't match the physicality. The two turnovers didn't help matters either in a one-touchdown game.

Now the Sooners are in a position with little room for error against one of the toughest schedules in college football. But don't count them out. After their loss to Ole Miss last year, the Sooners' College Football Playoff hopes were left for dead. Then they beat Tennessee and Alabama on the road and LSU and Missouri at home to save their season.

Can they do it again in 2026?

Each week, the ESPN Matchup Predictor updates their win probabilities for each team in college football. After Oklahoma's loss

over Michigan, how has their season changed according to the computers?

Here's how ESPN Analytics projects the Oklahoma Sooners to fare in 2026.

Sept. 4 vs. UTEP Miners

Oklahoma's John Mateer (10) hands the ball off to Lloyd Avant (9) in the second half of the college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the UTEP Miners at the Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Sept. 4, 2026.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma - 99%

Result: Oklahoma 51, UTEP 0

Record: 1-0

Sept. 12 at Michigan Wolverines

Sep 6, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Owen Heinecke (38) applies pressure on Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during the second half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma - 64.4%

Result: L, 17-10

Record: 1-1

Sept. 19 vs. New Mexico Lobos

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer (10) looks to make a pass in the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Gaylord Family OK Memorial Stadium.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 89.7 (Down from 94.9%)

Projected running record: 2-1

Sept. 26 at Georgia Bulldogs

Jan 1, 2018; Pasadena, CA, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws a pass against the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2018 Rose Bowl college football playoff semifinal game at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Georgia

Sooners Win Probability: 19.6% (Down from 26.1%)

Projected running record: 2-2

Oct. 10 vs. Texas Longhorns (Cotton Bowl)

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) drops back to pass during the Red River Rivalry college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Texas (UT) Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Oklahoma won 34-30.

Predicted Winner: Texas

Sooners Win Probability: 21.8% (Down from 24.4%)

Projected running record: 2-3

Oct. 17 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Kenny Minchey (3) throws the ball during the Kentucky Football spring game on April 18, 2026; Lexington, KY, USA; at Kroger Field.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 88% (Up from 86.7%)

Projected running record: 3-3

Oct. 24 at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Sep 13, 2025; Starkville, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs tight end Emeka Iloh (84) and head coach Jeff Lebby react during the second half against the Alcorn State Braves at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Mandatory Credit: Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 60.1% (Down from 73.4%)

Projected running record: 4-3

Oct. 31 vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Oct 18, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Tory Blaylock (6) rushes against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the first quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 67.8% (Down from 68.4%)

Projected running record: 5-3

Nov. 7 at Florida Gators

Jan 8, 2008; Miami, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow (15) throws a pass to wide receiver Louis Murphy (front) for a touchdown during the second quarter of the 2009 BCS Championship Game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Dolphin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Predicted Winner: Florida

Sooners Win Probability: 46.4% (Down from 53.1%)

Projected running record: 5-4

Nov. 14 vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) runs for a touchdown during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Ole Miss Rebels at Gaylord Family Ã Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. Ole Miss won 34-26.

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 64.4% (Down from 67.7%)

Projected running record: 6-4

Nov. 21 vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Nov 11, 2005; Norman, OK USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety (1) Reggie Smith reacts after making a play the during the 1st quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Copyright (c) 2005 Tim Heitman

Predicted Winner: Texas A&M

Sooners Win Probability: 40.7% (Down from 50.4%)

Projected running record: 6-5

Nov. 28 at Missouri Tigers

Nov 22, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Kendal Daniels (5) reacts during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Predicted Winner: Oklahoma

Sooners Win Probability: 60.1% (Down from 69.9%)

Projected running record: 7-5

Sooners Season on the Brink

That loss to Michigan was devastating for the Oklahoma Sooners, according to the computers. It flipped matchups against Florida and Texas A&M away from the Sooners and dropped Oklahoma's win probability in every game but the Kentucky game.

Oklahoma has to win one or both games against Georgia and Texas and then go on a huge run over the final seven games of the season to try and salvage a College Football Playoff berth.

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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: Updated picks from ESPN Matchup Predictor after Oklahoma's loss