The Oklahoma Sooners came into the 2026 college football season fresh off their fifth College Football Playoff appearance. The Sooners went 10-3, but lost in the first round of the CFP to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
So, in 2026, the Sooners hoped to build off that strong season under head coach Brent Venables. Oklahoma also returned many key pieces from last year's team. However, the season has started rocky, as Oklahoma is 2-2 coming out of the bye week.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) measures team strength and is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season. The FPI gives the Sooners a 3.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff after the disappointing start.
While a 3.3% playoff probability shows how much
Oklahoma's outlook has changed, it does not eliminate the possibility of a strong finish. The Sooners still have a chance to prove the projection wrong, and the schedule ahead gives them plenty of opportunities to reshape the narrative around the team.
Oklahoma will have to improve its offense if it wants a chance at a playoff run. The Sooners have one of the worst offenses in the country; on top of that, they turn it over at a high rate. The Sooners must fix those two areas to turn the season around.
Oklahoma's first opportunity comes immediately with the Red River Rivalry against the No. 1 Texas Longhorns. A strong showing against the Longhorns could give the Sooners the confidence and momentum they need coming out of the bye week, turning a disappointing start into a much more encouraging second half.
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This article originally appeared on Sooners Wire: ESPN FPI says Oklahoma's playoff hopes aren't dead yet
