When ESPN ranked the Oklahoma City Thunder as the No. 1 team in their latest NBA future power rankings, most fans were excited to hear that. They're expected to be the top team to contend for championships over the next three seasons from 2026-29.
It makes sense. The Thunder have one NBA championship in hand with chances to get more. They've been the first seed for three consecutive years. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a two-time MVP winner. Meanwhile, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are each All-NBA talents. Let's not forget the loaded depth they have, too.
But further reading the piece, ESPN posed a stomach-turning question Thunder fans don't want to hear — what if they have to trade Williams or Holmgren over the next two summers due to the NBA's
strict salary-cap realities?
Thanks to the emergence of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren, the Thunder will have very little money left to spend for the foreseeable future. Gilgeous-Alexander is set to start the supermax. Meanwhile, Williams and Holmgren are about to start their second contracts, respectively. All in all, those three will sponge up around 85% of OKC's payroll for the rest of the decade.
Good luck constructing the rest of the roster with 15% of the money to play with.
That 85% figure doesn't even include impending contract extensions for key pieces — such as Cason Wallace and Ajay Mitchell. So count in an even smaller piece of the pie for the majority of the roster if those two secondary contract extensions materialize.
All this has the makings of an unfeasible payroll. Barring OKC ownership willing to pony up serious dough. Heck, we've already seen the effects of that this summer. The Thunder had a cost-cutting offseason. Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins were all traded out East to save money. More of those types of moves could be in line.
Could the Thunder opt to trade either Holmgren or Williams in order to revamp their depth chart? That's what ESPN's Ben Golliver boldly predicted in the NBA future power rankings. With the second apron and other tax penalties, it's almost impossible to round out a Big 3 for the long-term future.
"Oklahoma City will shift from a big three to a big two because of second apron concerns. The Thunder preserved their star trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Holmgren this summer by executing a series of cap-clearing trades, but more financial pain awaits next offseason," Golliver wrote. "Gilgeous-Alexander's salary will spike in the 2027-28 season, forcing the Thunder to make sharp cuts to their supporting cast or consider moving Williams or Holmgren. Constructing a new-and-improved version of the 2012 James Harden trade would help Oklahoma City maintain its depth and remain focused on its long-term sustainability."
Of course, a lot can change in the NBA from now until the next two summers. But as things stand right now, that's going to be a difficult idea to pitch to Thunder fans. Especially if they win a second NBA championship in three years this upcoming season. That's the makings of an NBA dynasty. How can you justify moving on from one of those pillars with the results on the court?
The whole point of owning an NBA franchise is for the golden window OKC is in right now. If the Thunder drastically change their identity by moving on from one of Williams or Holmgren — even with their respective faults — then that's a quick way to plummet your approval rating among the fanbase.
We'll see if Golliver's prediction turns out to be right. It's already happened to a couple of NBA franchises — ala the LA Clippers and Boston Celtics. But neither team was in the same historic territory as the Thunder are right now. This would be a first. And the 2012 Harden trade would be an adequate comparison. Both in terms of consequences and how a move would be viewed.
What does your squad look like in the next three years? 👀 Who wins MVP? 🏆 What duos are breaking up? 💔
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This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: ESPN predicts OKC Thunder will eventually trade Chet Holmgren or Jalen Williams
