Now that the summer months are behind us, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cason Wallace have endured almost an entire offseason without a contract extension. Barring a last-minute agreement before the Oct. 19 deadline, Sam Presti is staring down the barrel of his first restricted free agent in a decade.
From what Zach Lowe recently detailed on his latest podcast episode, it might take a miracle for the Thunder and Wallace to agree to a contract extension before the 2026-27 regular season starts. The Ringer's notorious NBA personality detailed his experience of asking around the league for their thoughts on his upcoming deal.
Lowe asked 10-15 NBA front office members to rank Cason Wallace, Brandin Podziemski and Anthony Black in terms of their next
contracts. None of the responders were from any of the three teams in the Thunder, Golden State Warriors and Orlando Magic.
Lowe asked about those three because they're part of the 2023 NBA draft class that has seldom seen a second contract. Victor Wembanyama and Amen Thompson are the sole 2023 first-round picks that have re-upped with their respective teams. An odd trend as a handful of post-Year 3 breakout players are usually no-brainers to get new deals done early in free agency.
"It probably wouldn't surprise you that Cason Wallace was universally the No. 1 rated player of these three by rival front office people. I did not text anyone with these teams. I didn't want to put them in that position," Lowe said. "Generally, guesses for his annual average salary and what would be fair were 25 on the low end and 33 on the high end."
Sheesh. That's a little surprising and on the high end from what most expected. I thought Wallace would be somewhere between the $20 million to $30 million ballpark range. But for $25 million per year to be the floor? With a jaw-dropping $33 million per year as the ceiling? That's a little rich for somebody who's averaged just eight points per game in his career.
Let's see how things play out over the next six weeks before this contract negotiation is put to bed — one way or the other — before the Thunder face the San Antonio Spurs on the 2026-27 Opening Night. Either they can meet in the middle where both sides are happy. Or Wallace plays out a contract year as he's promoted as a full-time starter on one of the co-title favorites.
This feels like an old-school contract negotiation where both sides have legitimate points.
If you're the Thunder, you call out Wallace's pedestrian regular-season stats. At least on offense. He's averaged a career 7.9 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists. His 3-point percentage has dwindled from 41.9% in his rookie year to 35.1% in his third year — all on small volume, too. Those aren't exactly bank-breaking numbers.
His production doesn't really scream $25-plus-million-per-year salary. That said, he's been stuck in an unofficial sixth-starter role his first three years. With Lu Dort out of the picture, he can change that narrative in his fourth season. Especially since the Thunder desperately need others to fill in the vacant scoring roles up for grabs.
If you're Wallace, you can point to his trophy case as to why he deserves the top end of his contract projection. He's a one-time NBA champion and played a key role in OKC's 2025 title run. He's also a one-time All-Defensive member and almost won the steals title last year. And even considering his meh regular-season numbers, he stepped up big time in the 2026 NBA playoffs. He shot a sizzling 48.4% from 3 on 4.1 attempts.
Wallace can also argue that it's disingenuous to hold his past offensive production against him. An NBA player's second contract is all projection. Considering everything he's already accomplished, the 22-year-old should see his career trajectory soar as he enters his prime years on his upcoming deal — whether that's in OKC or elsewhere.
Regardless, there are ways for the Thunder to keep Wallace around for the rest of their title window. But they're going to have to earn it. Those are the realities when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are about to take up a huge chunk of your payroll for the foreseeable future. You have to get creative to fill out the rest of the roster.
New Zach Lowe Show: Clippers follow-up questions + the NBA's next contract extension class w/ @johnhollinger, then TV comedy guru Mike Schur on his (and @JPosnanski)'s book on the nature of sports fandom:
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) September 8, 2026
Spotify:https://t.co/FyQWMiqYf8
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Rumor: Other NBA teams believe Cason Wallace is about get big-time payday
