The Spartans are sliding and the SP+ model doesn't like their chances to snap out of it this week against Northwestern.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his weekly SP+ predictions for every FBS game this week, and the projected final score for Michigan State-Northwestern is tilted towards the Wildcats. The model has Northwestern beating Michigan State by the final score of 34-19 on Saturday.
Michigan State has lost four straight games, including an overtime thriller this past weekend against Illinois. That defeat to the Fighting Illini has dropped the Spartans to 2-4 overall and 0-3 in Big Ten play.
Northwestern, on the other hand, is playing really well at the moment. The Wildcats are 4-1 overall and 1-1 in Big Ten play, with their lone defeat
being a narrow loss at Indiana. Northwestern is ranked this week at No. 25 in the Associated Press media poll.
Kickoff for this matchup between Michigan State and Northwestern is scheduled for 12 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will be available to watch via Peacock streaming.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
It's hard to get a good read on the Spartans at the moment, especially given the numerous key injuries they've suffered on the defensive side of the ball. Northwestern has been playing well this year and clearly deserves to be favored in this game. I'm just not sure if they're 15 points better than Michigan State. My personal prediction that'll come out later in the week is more leaning towards a single score game. But as I said, this is a hard one to get a good read on.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 7
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 11, 2026
Ohio St 26.4, Indiana 26.2 😳
Ole Miss 28.2, Mizzou 27.8 😳
Notre Dame 28, BYU 24
LSU 35, Miss St 23
Bama 30, Vols 26
Ducks 30, Huskers 24
Houston 31, Okla St 26
Texas 35, Florida 19
UGA 34, Auburn 15
Miami 40, FSU 16
UNM 35, Hawaii 13https://t.co/K6OnlBhwpu pic.twitter.com/bDBqhRbLiE
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for Michigan State-Northwestern matchup
