Can Michigan State football stun rival Michigan and take home Paul Bunyan for the first time in four years? ESPN's SP+ model doesn't like their chances.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his weekly SP+ predictions for every FBS game this week, and the projected final score for Michigan State-Michigan is tilted heavily towards the Wolverines. The model has Michigan beating Michigan State by the final score of 30-13 on Saturday.
Michigan State comes into this matchup looking for its first Big Ten win of the season. The Spartans have dropped six straight games, and are currently 2-6 overall and 0-5 in Big Ten play. Michigan State was a on bye last week.
Michigan is also having a down year in relation to their preseason expectations. The Wolverines
are 5-3 overall and 2-3 in Big Ten play following a road victory over Rutgers this past week.
Kickoff for this week's matchup is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. This game will broadcasted on Peacock.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
This score prediction feels about spot on given the beat up nature of the Spartans at the moment. If Michigan State is able to get starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic back this week, then I think they can hit double-digits in points against this tough Wolverines' defense. If he is still out, then Michigan State will really be in trouble against the Wolverines.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 10
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 10 SP+ PICKS. HUUUUUGE WEEK.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 1, 2026
Irish 31, Canes 27
Dawgs 32, Rebs 23
Utah 29, BYU 24
LSU 30, Bama 23
Tenn 32, Kentucky 22
Texas 26, Mizzou 22
Northwestern 24.2, Iowa 23.5
Ohio St 31, Oregon 19 (no QB adj)
SC 30, A&M 24
MACtion 10,000,000, Rest of CFB 0https://t.co/7OYkIgbedH pic.twitter.com/NWyj5GnUUp
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for Michigan State-Michigan matchup
