Can Michigan State find a way to stun Wisconsin and pick up a major road upset? The SP+ model doesn't think that'll happen this week in Mad City.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his weekly SP+ predictions for every FBS game this week, and the projected final score for the Spartans' game against Wisconsin has handling business. The projection model from SP+ has Wisconsin beating Michigan State by the final score of 28-19.
Michigan State is in the midst of a two-game losing skid at the moment, with the Spartans losing by double-digits at home this past weekend against Nebraska. That disappointing performance has dropped the Spartans to 2-2 overall and 0-1 in Big Ten play this season.
Wisconsin is playing better ball at the moment, using an impressive
17-point comeback performance to stun ranked Penn State on Saturday. That win moved the Badgers to 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big Ten play this year.
Kickoff from Madison, Wisc. is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The game will be televised on the Big Ten Network.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
This prediction seems about right with what we've seen from these two teams so far this season. Michigan State's offense has struggled in their last two games, and Wisconsin has shown they have a stiff defense. So the predicted spread of Wisconsin winning by nine points is in line with my initial read as well, but I personally would think this game will be a little bit more lower scoring. Right now, I have a hard time finding nearly 20 points for the Spartans in this matchup.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 5
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 5 SP+ PICKS
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 27, 2026
Ohio St 30, Iowa 19
Bama 32, Miss St 27
Florida 28, Mizzou 26
UGA 39, Vandy 14
Tennessee 30, Auburn 21
BYU 28, TCU 22
Houston 29, UCF 24
Irish 36, Heels 13
Miami 33, Clemson 15
Va Tech 25.8, Pitt 25.7!
UConn 25.5, 'Cuse 25.4!
Full list: https://t.co/MU1KsDQwmb pic.twitter.com/2pPu0AdCFF
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for Michigan State-Wisconsin matchup
