Can Michigan State football kickoff the Pat Fitzgerald era by avoiding an upset against the Toledo Rockets? The Spartans Wire crew is here to provide their thoughts on this potentially difficult season-opening matchup for the Spartans.
Michigan State officially kicks off the 2026 season on Friday, with the Spartans set to host Toledo out of the Mid-American Conference. The Spartans and Rockets both come into this game with new coaching staffs and plenty of roster turnover, making for what could be a very intriguing matchup on Friday night.
Michigan State is currently sitting as a narrow 9.5-point favorite against the Rockets, which puts them certainly on upset watch. But does the Spartans Wire staff think they're actually in danger of losing this
opener? Let's take a look at our predictions for this week's matchup between Michigan State and Toledo below:
Cory Linsner
Prediction: Michigan State 24, Toledo 13
This one is scary, and rightfully so, considering no one knows how Michigan State’s new look roster is going to look together. Luckily for Michigan State, Toledo had more roster overturn than the Spartans, which also raises question marks. This one has a very clunky feeling to it, a game that ends low scoring and is just ugly. Give me the Spartans in a game closer than everyone wants.
Robert Bondy
Prediction: Michigan State 31, Toledo 13
Michigan State has been a popular pick to be on upset alert watch this week, which I understand if you look at the recent struggles of the Spartans and success of the Rockets. Not to mention the betting line is down to single digits as well. But I personally see Michigan State handling Toledo based on their talent advantage and what should be a healthy starting core for the opener. My biggest concern longterm for the Spartans this season is depth, but in the opener that shouldn't play as much of a role. This game may be close at halftime, but eventually Michigan State pulls away and easily covers that surprisingly low betting spread.
Andrew Brewster
Prediction: Michigan State 20, Toledo 10
As far as Week One match-ups go in college football, this is not an easy one. But I get the feeling that Pat Fitzgerald wouldn't have it any other way. This is not a meaningless preseason-adjacent game against a creampuff. Toledo is expected to be one of, if not the best, team in the MAC conference this year, and they will give MSU a major fight. I am expecting the Spartans to take this one. If they don't get ready for a rough rebuilding year for MSU.
Rest of our Big Ten picks
Interested in our picks for the rest of the Big Ten games this week? Click here to check out our picks against the spread for each Big Ten game on the schedule this week.
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.
This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Michigan State vs. Toledo: Score predictions, analysis from Spartans Wire staff
