Will Michigan State football win its season-opener against Toledo with relative ease? The SP+ predictive model believes that'll be the case to some degree.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his weekly SP+ predictions for every FBS game this week, and it currently is projecting a Spartans' two-touchdown victory over Toledo in the season-opener. The algorithm has Michigan State topping Toledo by the final score of 31-17 -- which is about four points above the betting spread that has the Spartans as a roughly 10-point favorite against the Rockets.
Michigan State is coming into this matchup looking to get back to a bowl game for the first time in five years. The Spartans are entering this season under new leadership with head coach Pat Fitzgerald taking
over the helm at Michigan State.
Toledo is also coming into this season under new coaching, with former Mercer coach Mike Jacobs stepping in as the new Rockets' head coach. The Rockets have been one of the most consistent programs in the Mid-American Conference over the last two decades, with five straight bowl appearances and 13 of the last 16 seasons.
Kickoff between Michigan State and Toledo is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Friday at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Mich. The game will be televised on FS1.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
This prediction from SP+ is more in line with what I'm expecting for this matchup between the Spartans and Rockets than what the betting line is posted at. I'm anticipating this game to be close but eventually Michigan State pulling away and winning by a pair of touchdowns in the end. So the projected score of 31-17 is pretty spot on with how I see this game playing out on Friday night.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 1
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 1 SP+ PICKS. WE'RE BACK.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 30, 2026
LSU 28, Clemson 18
Ole Miss 29, Louisville 24
SMU 27, FSU 25
Irish 35, Badgers 12
UCLA 26.8, Cal 26.7
Kansas 48, LIU 1, lol
Spreadsheet is updated for all levels (and postgame win expectancy -- no surprises this week)!https://t.co/sq3wG4Xaj9 pic.twitter.com/XaPmxcUs9E
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for Michigan State-Toledo matchup
