Can Michigan State football pull off a massive upset this week at rival Notre Dame? Unfortunately, the SP+ model doesn't give them much of a chance to even keep this one close.
Bill Connelly of ESPN has posted his weekly SP+ predictions for every FBS game this week, and the projected final score for the Spartans' game against Notre Dame is not pleasing to say the least. The prediction model has the Fighting Irish easily handling the Spartans, winning by the final score of 41-13 on Saturday night.
Michigan State and Notre Dame both come into this matchup with perfect 2-0 records on the year. The Spartans have handled their first two opponents of Toledo and Eastern Michigan, while Notre Dame has also cruised so far this year with blowout wins over
Wisconsin and Rice.
Kickoff from Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind. is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The game will be televised on NBC.
My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction
While I'm not a fan of this wide margin prediction, I'm not surprised by the number given the fact that the betting line is nearly 30 as well. I do still think the power ratings and algorithms used for things like SP+ or betting lines have not full caught up to Michigan State yet. But I also very much could see this game going sideways based on what we've already seen out of Notre Dame so far this season.
Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 3
Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:
WEEK 3 SP+ PICKS
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 13, 2026
LSU 29, Ole Miss 22
Tex Tech 32, Houston 22
Louisville 27, SMU 26
Bama 32, FSU 16
Irish 41, Spartans 13
Dawgs 41, Hogs 16
A&M 36, Kentucky 16
UVA 30, WVU 20
Washington 50, EWU 5 #fünf
All games here: https://t.co/X4NmlMrtRG pic.twitter.com/cgivREJga3
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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN SP+ ratings system predicts final score for Michigan State-Notre Dame matchup
