The Washington Commanders entered their game against the New York Giants as the favorite, even though New York led the NFC East and Washington was last. However, Washington was getting quarterback Jayden Daniels back, and that would give the Commanders the edge.
Daniels actually had a really good game and even got Washington out to a 14-point lead. At that point, ESPN analytics said the Commanders had a 97.9% chance of winning. Once the game was in overtime, the Giants were favored when they were in field goal range, but Cam Skattebo’s fumble shifted things back in Washington’s favor.
With 55 seconds left, the Commanders handed the ball to running back Rachaad White, who gained two yards and got the ball to the Giants’ 24-yard line. After that
play, Washington had an 88.9% chance of winning. However, after Daniels was sacked and the Commanders had no timeout to stop the clock, the game ended in a 27-27 tie.
The Commanders had a win probability of 89% before the final play of the game according to ESPN Analytics. It was as high as 97.9% when they led by 14 in the 4th quarter 😬 https://t.co/YaCTzA7Dc1 pic.twitter.com/XSG9KmJk95
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) October 11, 2026
In a Sunday full of shocking plays in the NFL, this actually might have been the worst. Especially after having a 97.9% chance of winning in the fourth quarter and an 88.9% chance of winning just before the end of overtime, this never should have ended in a tie. This will serve as a hard lesson for Daniels and the rest of the Commanders’ players and coaches about the importance of proper time management and game awareness.
This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: Commanders' win probability was as high as 97.9% in Sunday’s game vs Giants that ended in tie
