At the beginning of the NFL season, there was hope for the Washington Commanders. They have franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels, a strong receiver duo in Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs and a strong draft class.
They also made some under-the-radar free-agent acquisitions, including safety Nick Cross, who spent the previous four seasons with the Indianapolis Colts. In his final two years with the Colts, Cross was a tackling machine, recording 146 total tackles in 2024 and 120 in 2025.
ESPN made a bold prediction for every team to start the season, and they predicted Cross would lead all safeties in tackles. However, after five weeks of the season, they are tossing that prediction out the window and replacing it with a new prediction:
“Original
prediction: Nick Cross will lead all safeties in tackles.
Why we're throwing it out: Cross has only 11 tackles so far this season, trailing far behind the league leader among safeties, the Ravens' Kyle Hamilton (39).
New bold prediction: Running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt will finish the season with positive rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's bold because Croskey-Merritt is currently at minus-30 for the season. But he just put up plus-40 rush yards over expected in Washington's Week 5 tie with the Giants. I'm buying that he'll continue that positive trend.”
This is certainly a reasonable bold prediction. Croskey-Merritt is the Commanders’ top running back and has done well in Washington’s division games this season against the Giants and Philadelphia Eagles back in the season opener. Having Jayden Daniels back from injury should also help open up opportunities for Croskey-Merritt to have more rushing yards than expected this this season. However, he will have a tough matchup on Monday against the San Francisco 49ers, who have a top-10 run defense.
As for Cross, don’t blame him for ESPN’s revised prediction. He started the first two games for the Commanders before suffering an internal injury in the Week 2 loss at Dallas and missing the last three games. Cross is expected back in Washington’s lineup on Monday night.
This article originally appeared on Commanders Wire: ESPN revisits bold Commanders' 2026 prediction
